NY-MOODY’S-ANALYTICS
4.6.2020 14:02:09 CEST | Business Wire | Press release
According to the Moody’s Analytics baseline economic forecast, real global GDP will fall by 4.5% this year as a result of COVID-19. Our base case for the US suggests that it will take until mid-decade for the economy to return to full-employment. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, describes the outlook in a new paper, Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy .
“COVID-19 has caused massive damage to the global economy. Quickly reopening economies will boost growth by unleashing pent-up demand, but will also raise the specter of a re-intensification of COVID-19 and another economic downdraft, which could lead to a worldwide depression. We construct our economic forecasts to help market participants navigate this daunting uncertainty and make better decisions,” said Mr. Zandi.
The Moody’s Analytics baseline economic forecast represents our view of the most likely trajectory for the global economy. The baseline forecast is part of a set of 12 forecast scenarios , updated monthly, that project alternative economic paths for more than 100 countries as well as sub-national regions in major markets. These scenarios are driven by different assumptions regarding the epidemiology of COVID-19, demand-side factors including monetary and fiscal policies, and longer-run structural forces such as sovereign debt loads and globalization. To help users, each scenario is assigned a probability based on its relative severity and our view of how likely it is to occur.
“Given the unprecedented uncertainty around the path of the virus and the policy response, we maintain several alternative scenarios that cover a range of possible outcomes to help users assess the impact on their businesses and portfolios,” added Mr. Zandi. “Our global team of economists is dedicated to developing scenarios that account for current conditions and the various risks facing economies that may impact their outlook.”
Forecasts are based on the Moody’s Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model, which balances economic theory and empirical behavior and is fully documented and validated. In addition to the probability-weighted monthly scenarios, Moody’s Analytics produces ad hoc thematic economic scenarios that forecast potential outcomes in the event of significant policy shifts or changes to economic fundamentals. Our new Global Debt Crisis thematic scenario examines the consequences of high and rising sovereign debt in the event that global growth slows and governments in both developed and emerging markets are unable to address their high and rising debt loads.
Our economic forecast scenarios can be accessed and downloaded in a variety of formats through a standalone subscription or with our dedicated economic and credit risk modeling tools.
The accuracy of our forecasting was recently recognized in the 2020 FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards, where Moody’s Analytics ranked #1 in 14 categories.
Our economic forecast scenarios are one of a number of Moody’s Analytics solutions that help leaders across industries make better decisions in the COVID-19 environment.
About Moody’s Analytics
Moody’s Analytics provides financial intelligence and analytical tools to help business leaders make better, faster decisions. Our deep risk expertise, expansive information resources, and innovative application of technology help our clients confidently navigate an evolving marketplace. We are known for our industry-leading and award-winning solutions, made up of research, data, software, and professional services, assembled to deliver a seamless customer experience. We create confidence in thousands of organizations worldwide, with our commitment to excellence, open mindset approach, and focus on meeting customer needs. For more information about Moody’s Analytics, visit our website or connect with us on Twitter or LinkedIn .
Moody's Analytics, Inc. is a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO). Moody’s Corporation reported revenue of $4.8 billion in 2019, employs approximately 11,300 people worldwide and maintains a presence in 40 countries.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200604005227/en/
Link:
About Business Wire
Subscribe to releases from Business Wire
Subscribe to all the latest releases from Business Wire by registering your e-mail address below. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Latest releases from Business Wire
Phenom Adds Major Headline Speakers as IAMPHENOM Europe Approaches Sold-Out Status6.10.2026 15:30:00 CEST | Press release
Second wave of esteemed speakers to bring real-world guidance on applying AI, agents and automation to improve hiring, development and retention Phenom, the leader in applied AI built to redesign work operations for hiring faster, developing better and retaining longer, today announced the newest wave of speakers for IAMPHENOM Europe 2026, the only applied AI event dedicated to human resources taking place on 4-5 November in Paris, France. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261006714151/en/ Phenom announced the newest wave of speakers for IAMPHENOM Europe 2026, the only applied AI event dedicated to human resources taking place on 4-5 November in Paris, France. The two-day conference gives attendees what other HR events can’t: an inside look at AI agents already in production, automated workflows tailored to specific business contexts and the dramatic results they are already delivering. Across keynotes, customer
European Firms Struggle to Keep Pace with Growing DSAR Demands, New Reveal Study Finds6.10.2026 15:00:00 CEST | Press release
With 86% of organisations still lacking dedicated DSAR technology, fewer than half of requests are completed within the one-month window GDPR requires, even as spending climbs New research published today byReveal, the provider of integrated AI-native platforms spanning the dispute resolution lifecycle, found that large European organisations complete fewer than half of data subject access requests (DSARs) within the one-month deadline required under the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), a shortfall the study ties directly to a near-universal absence of purpose-built technology. Nearly nine in 10 organisations still run DSARs on manual or general-purpose workflows, with no dedicated tooling in place. The report, based on a survey of 213 legal and privacy professionals at large European enterprises, is the first of its kind to benchmark how organisations across the region are managing DSAR compliance at scale. The findings expose structural inconsistencies between how organisat
New Global Survey Finds Majority of VMware Users Are Choosing Alternative Paths for Cost Control, Roadmap Flexibility and Better Support6.10.2026 15:00:00 CEST | Press release
Rimini Street and DBTA/Unisphere Research survey finds 66% are already using or are considering third-party support Rimini Street, Inc. (Nasdaq: RMNI), the Software Support and Agentic AI ERP Company™ and the leading third-party support provider for Oracle, SAP and VMware software, today announced findings from the 2026 IT Virtualization Survey – What’s Next for VMware Users, a new global survey of nearly 300 VMware user organizations conducted by Unisphere Research on behalf of Rimini Street. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261006014490/en/ New Global Survey Finds Majority of VMware Users Are Choosing Alternative Paths for Cost Control, Roadmap Flexibility and Better Support Cost Cited as the Number One Factor in Seeking Alternative VMware Solutions Key Findings: 90% of respondents said they are considering alternatives to VMware due to higher licensing costs, while 54% cited the end of perpetual license supp
Xsolla Shows Brand Owners How to Create Value for Video Players at Brand Licensing Europe With Rewarded Marketing6.10.2026 15:00:00 CEST | Press release
Twenty-One Years of Game Commerce Comes to ExCeL London, October 6 to 8, With a New Way for Brands to Reward the Players They Have Been Trying to Reach for Years Xsolla, a global commerce company, today announced it will be at Brand Licensing Europe 2026 at ExCeL London, October 6 to 8, to show brand owners how to engage with video game players by creating quest-based programs and value new users actually value. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261006443167/en/ Graphic: Xsolla Video games are one of the largest categories of entertainment spending in the world, yet most brands still treat the category as an experiment: a one-off promotional stunt or a single media buy, not a lasting engagement program. The traditional formats brands default to were never built for players. Interstitial pop-ups disrupt gameplay, banner ads go unnoticed, and in-game activations remain cumbersome and expensive to execute. The idea
Rochester Electronics Launches Localized E-Commerce Experiences Across Key Global Markets6.10.2026 15:00:00 CEST | Press release
Europe and the Americas join Rochester's growing global e-commerce network Rochester Electronics today announced the launch of fully enabled e-commerce capabilities across its regional websites, allowing customers in key global markets to search for, source, and purchase authorized semiconductors in their local language. While Rochester's regional sites previously offered localized content and product information, they now support a complete end-to-end purchasing experience. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261006914131/en/ Rochester Electronics Launches Localized E-Commerce Experiences Across Key Global Markets The newly upgraded platforms are now live in Portuguese (Brazil), Spanish (Mexico), French, German, Italian, and Polish, complementing Rochester’s existing full e-commerce platforms in English, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean (South Korea). Customers can now complete transactions directly through their lo
In our pressroom you can read all our latest releases, find our press contacts, images, documents and other relevant information about us.
Visit our pressroom