NY-MOODY’S-ANALYTICS
According to the Moody’s Analytics baseline economic forecast, real global GDP will fall by 4.5% this year as a result of COVID-19. Our base case for the US suggests that it will take until mid-decade for the economy to return to full-employment. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, describes the outlook in a new paper, Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy .
“COVID-19 has caused massive damage to the global economy. Quickly reopening economies will boost growth by unleashing pent-up demand, but will also raise the specter of a re-intensification of COVID-19 and another economic downdraft, which could lead to a worldwide depression. We construct our economic forecasts to help market participants navigate this daunting uncertainty and make better decisions,” said Mr. Zandi.
The Moody’s Analytics baseline economic forecast represents our view of the most likely trajectory for the global economy. The baseline forecast is part of a set of 12 forecast scenarios , updated monthly, that project alternative economic paths for more than 100 countries as well as sub-national regions in major markets. These scenarios are driven by different assumptions regarding the epidemiology of COVID-19, demand-side factors including monetary and fiscal policies, and longer-run structural forces such as sovereign debt loads and globalization. To help users, each scenario is assigned a probability based on its relative severity and our view of how likely it is to occur.
“Given the unprecedented uncertainty around the path of the virus and the policy response, we maintain several alternative scenarios that cover a range of possible outcomes to help users assess the impact on their businesses and portfolios,” added Mr. Zandi. “Our global team of economists is dedicated to developing scenarios that account for current conditions and the various risks facing economies that may impact their outlook.”
Forecasts are based on the Moody’s Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model, which balances economic theory and empirical behavior and is fully documented and validated. In addition to the probability-weighted monthly scenarios, Moody’s Analytics produces ad hoc thematic economic scenarios that forecast potential outcomes in the event of significant policy shifts or changes to economic fundamentals. Our new Global Debt Crisis thematic scenario examines the consequences of high and rising sovereign debt in the event that global growth slows and governments in both developed and emerging markets are unable to address their high and rising debt loads.
Our economic forecast scenarios can be accessed and downloaded in a variety of formats through a standalone subscription or with our dedicated economic and credit risk modeling tools.
The accuracy of our forecasting was recently recognized in the 2020 FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards, where Moody’s Analytics ranked #1 in 14 categories.
Our economic forecast scenarios are one of a number of Moody’s Analytics solutions that help leaders across industries make better decisions in the COVID-19 environment.
About Moody’s Analytics
Moody’s Analytics provides financial intelligence and analytical tools to help business leaders make better, faster decisions. Our deep risk expertise, expansive information resources, and innovative application of technology help our clients confidently navigate an evolving marketplace. We are known for our industry-leading and award-winning solutions, made up of research, data, software, and professional services, assembled to deliver a seamless customer experience. We create confidence in thousands of organizations worldwide, with our commitment to excellence, open mindset approach, and focus on meeting customer needs. For more information about Moody’s Analytics, visit our website or connect with us on Twitter or LinkedIn .
Moody's Analytics, Inc. is a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO). Moody’s Corporation reported revenue of $4.8 billion in 2019, employs approximately 11,300 people worldwide and maintains a presence in 40 countries.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200604005227/en/
Link:
About Business Wire
Subscribe to releases from Business Wire
Subscribe to all the latest releases from Business Wire by registering your e-mail address below. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Latest releases from Business Wire
Celltrion receives positive CHMP Opinion for SteQeyma™ (ustekinumab biosimilar) autoinjector18.12.2025 03:41:00 CET | Press release
SteQeyma™45mg and 90mg solution for injection via autoinjector (pre-filled pen) receives positive CHMP opinion, which will facilitate subcutaneous administration in patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and Crohn’s disease (CD)1The new autoinjector option increases convenience, enhances individual patient experience and expands administration options Celltrion, Inc. today announced that the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has adopted a positive opinion of autoinjector of SteQeyma™, a biosimilar to Stelara® (ustekinumab), for the treatment of plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and Crohn’s disease (CD). The positive CHMP opinion is for SteQeyma autoinjector in 45mg/0.5mL and 90mg/1mL, expanding the currently approved SteQeyma™ presentation, which includes 45mg/0.5mL, 90mg/1mL in a pre-filled syringe and 45mg/0.5mL in a vial for subcutaneous injection, as well as 130mg/26mL concentrate for solution f
Megaport Expands into India, Accelerating Global Growth with Extreme IX Acquisition18.12.2025 02:15:00 CET | Press release
Through the Extreme Exchange (IX) acquisition, Megaport gains seven Internet Exchanges and access to 40+ data centres across India’s fastest-growing digital hubs. Megaport Limited (ASX: MP1) (“Megaport”), the world’s leading Network as a Service (NaaS) provider, today announced the acquisition of Extreme IX,India’s leading Internet Exchange operator, from Extreme Labs, a Bulgaria-headquartered software and network engineering company that incubated the Extreme IX platform. The acquisition expands Megaport’s global platform into one of the world’s fastest-growing digital infrastructure markets and supports the Company’s strategy to deliver scalable, high-performance connectivity services across APAC. The acquisition establishes Megaport’s presence across seven Internet Exchanges in major Indian metros: Delhi, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Chennai, Bengaluru, Mumbai, and Pune, connecting 40+ data centres and more than 400 customers. It also accelerates Megaport’s planned market entry by nearly thr
IonQ and QuantumBasel Expand Long-Term Partnership in Next-Generation Quantum Systems17.12.2025 22:10:00 CET | Press release
Extension solidifies QuantumBasel as IonQ’s Innovation Center in Europe; adds IonQ Tempo and next-generation system to advance quantum commercialization IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), the world’s leading quantum company, today announced an expanded agreement with QuantumBasel, the quantum initiative of uptownBasel, Switzerland’s innovation campus. The extended contract grants QuantumBasel ownership of its existing IonQ Forte Enterprise system and secures ownership of a next-generation Tempo system. This new agreement brings the total deal value of the QuantumBasel and IonQ partnership to over $60 million and extends IonQ’s on-site presence in Switzerland four more years, continuing through 2029. QuantumBasel is IonQ’s official Innovation Center in Europe, serving as a hub for European industry, academia, and research institutions to explore practical quantum computing applications and access IonQ’s latest enterprise-grade systems. “Our extended partnership with QuantumBasel represents a cornerston
Suzano Starts Up New Production Line, Boosting Its Fluff Pulp Capacity by 400%17.12.2025 21:50:00 CET | Press release
A R$490 million investment expands the supply of raw material used in the production of absorbent items Suzano, the world’s largest pulp producer, has commenced operations this week at its new fluff pulp production line located in its Limeira unit in Brazil’s São Paulo state. This R$490 million investment increases Suzano’s total fluff pulp production capacity by more than 400%, from 100,000 to 440,000 tonnes per year. The project involved converting the existing pulp line at the Limeira unit into a flexible machine, capable of producing both Eucafluff® and market pulp. Eucafluff® is used in the production of absorbent and personal hygiene products, such as baby and adult diapers, sanitary pads and pet pads. Then market pulp is supplied for making products including toilet paper, printing and writing papers, and paper packaging. Launched in 2015, Eucafluff® is the world’s first fluff pulp made from eucalyptus, delivering unique advantages like enhanced softness and flexibility, which t
SES Acknowledges Moody’s Rating Action and Reiterates Deleveraging Commitments17.12.2025 21:36:00 CET | Press release
SES S.A. (“SES” or the “Company”), a leading space solutions company, acknowledges the credit rating action announced by Moody’s Investor Service today, which follows the release of SES’ Q3 2025 results and Intelsat integration update. SES management reiterates that the Company continues to execute on its strategy with a clear plan to strengthen its key credit metrics over time. Consistent with this plan, it remains management’s intention to de-lever and return to credit metrics that are commensurate with investment grade, with a policy objective of reducing adjusted net leverage1 to at least 3.0x or below. Today’s rating action does not change the Company’s ability to operate its business, serve customers, or execute its strategic plan. SES maintains a balanced weighted average debt maturity profile of approximately five years, and the rating action from Moody’s is not expected to have a material impact on the interest payable under the Company’s existing debt facilities. SES also ben
In our pressroom you can read all our latest releases, find our press contacts, images, documents and other relevant information about us.
Visit our pressroom