NY-MOODY’S-ANALYTICS
4.6.2020 14:02:09 CEST | Business Wire | Press release
According to the Moody’s Analytics baseline economic forecast, real global GDP will fall by 4.5% this year as a result of COVID-19. Our base case for the US suggests that it will take until mid-decade for the economy to return to full-employment. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, describes the outlook in a new paper, Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy .
“COVID-19 has caused massive damage to the global economy. Quickly reopening economies will boost growth by unleashing pent-up demand, but will also raise the specter of a re-intensification of COVID-19 and another economic downdraft, which could lead to a worldwide depression. We construct our economic forecasts to help market participants navigate this daunting uncertainty and make better decisions,” said Mr. Zandi.
The Moody’s Analytics baseline economic forecast represents our view of the most likely trajectory for the global economy. The baseline forecast is part of a set of 12 forecast scenarios , updated monthly, that project alternative economic paths for more than 100 countries as well as sub-national regions in major markets. These scenarios are driven by different assumptions regarding the epidemiology of COVID-19, demand-side factors including monetary and fiscal policies, and longer-run structural forces such as sovereign debt loads and globalization. To help users, each scenario is assigned a probability based on its relative severity and our view of how likely it is to occur.
“Given the unprecedented uncertainty around the path of the virus and the policy response, we maintain several alternative scenarios that cover a range of possible outcomes to help users assess the impact on their businesses and portfolios,” added Mr. Zandi. “Our global team of economists is dedicated to developing scenarios that account for current conditions and the various risks facing economies that may impact their outlook.”
Forecasts are based on the Moody’s Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model, which balances economic theory and empirical behavior and is fully documented and validated. In addition to the probability-weighted monthly scenarios, Moody’s Analytics produces ad hoc thematic economic scenarios that forecast potential outcomes in the event of significant policy shifts or changes to economic fundamentals. Our new Global Debt Crisis thematic scenario examines the consequences of high and rising sovereign debt in the event that global growth slows and governments in both developed and emerging markets are unable to address their high and rising debt loads.
Our economic forecast scenarios can be accessed and downloaded in a variety of formats through a standalone subscription or with our dedicated economic and credit risk modeling tools.
The accuracy of our forecasting was recently recognized in the 2020 FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards, where Moody’s Analytics ranked #1 in 14 categories.
Our economic forecast scenarios are one of a number of Moody’s Analytics solutions that help leaders across industries make better decisions in the COVID-19 environment.
About Moody’s Analytics
Moody’s Analytics provides financial intelligence and analytical tools to help business leaders make better, faster decisions. Our deep risk expertise, expansive information resources, and innovative application of technology help our clients confidently navigate an evolving marketplace. We are known for our industry-leading and award-winning solutions, made up of research, data, software, and professional services, assembled to deliver a seamless customer experience. We create confidence in thousands of organizations worldwide, with our commitment to excellence, open mindset approach, and focus on meeting customer needs. For more information about Moody’s Analytics, visit our website or connect with us on Twitter or LinkedIn .
Moody's Analytics, Inc. is a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO). Moody’s Corporation reported revenue of $4.8 billion in 2019, employs approximately 11,300 people worldwide and maintains a presence in 40 countries.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200604005227/en/
Link:
About Business Wire
Subscribe to releases from Business Wire
Subscribe to all the latest releases from Business Wire by registering your e-mail address below. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Latest releases from Business Wire
Visa Threats Report: As Network Security Strengthens, Criminals Accelerate Shift to AI-Enabled Social Engineering20.5.2026 15:16:00 CEST | Press release
Spring 2026 Biannual Threats Report shows how strengthening payment security is pushing criminals toward AI-enabled social engineering Visa (NYSE: V), a world leader in digital payments, today released its Spring 2026 Biannual Threats Report, revealing that scams have become the fastest-growing source of consumer harm as criminals increasingly use artificial intelligence and social engineering to manipulate people into authorizing payments themselves. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260520153924/en/ The report draws on intelligence from Visa’s global network and underscores a critical shift in the fraud landscape: while core payment security continues to strengthen at the network level, criminals are redirecting their efforts away from technical system compromises toward exploiting human trust. From July to December 2025, Visa identified nearly $1 billion in scam-related activity, making scams the single large
1GLOBAL Launches Verint Communications Analytics to Enhance Cloud Compliance for Financial and Regulated Industries20.5.2026 15:00:00 CEST | Press release
1GLOBAL now offers transcription with insights into mobile calls in 10 countries on Verint Communications Analytics, built specifically for financial markets and trading environmentsStreamlines the compliance investigation and mobile call monitoring process through transcription and analysisSupports transcription and translation from 30+ languages into English with near real-time processing 1GLOBAL, a pioneer in global telecommunications solutions, today announced its launch of Verint® Communications Analytics, a key offering within Verint Financial Compliance (VFC) providing mobile call transcription and analytics capabilities. Verint Communications Analytics has been designed to help financial institutions and regulated organizations accelerate productivity when monitoring voice calls (including mobile), identifying behavioral patterns, querying data intentionally by topic, risks, keywords or sentiment, identifying misuse and reducing regulatory risk. Verint Communications Analytics
Xsolla Expands Nordic Presence With Industry Engagements Across Sweden, Including Official Sponsorship of Nordic Game 202620.5.2026 15:00:00 CEST | Press release
Coordinated Activations Across Sweden Underscore Xsolla’s Continued Investment In The Nordic Games Ecosystem, Bringing Developers, Partners, And Creators Together Xsolla, a global video game commerce company that helps developers launch, grow, and monetize their games, today announces a comprehensive program of events and activations across Sweden throughout May 2026, including its official sponsorship of Nordic Game 2026. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260520833786/en/ Graphic: Xsolla At Nordic Game, Xsolla will showcase its Web Shop solution, a direct-to-consumer (D2C) platform designed to help developers build and scale their own storefronts outside traditional app stores. The Web Shop ecosystem integrates storefronts, LiveOps tools, and player engagement features, enabling studios to strengthen player relationships while increasing revenue and operational control. Xsolla will also highlight its global pay
Cyclic Materials Appoints Former Siemens and Alcoa CEO Klaus Kleinfeld to Board of Directors20.5.2026 14:30:00 CEST | Press release
Dr. Klaus Kleinfeld’s proven leadership at two Fortune 500 public companies will strengthen the company’s global expansion Cyclic Materials, the rare earth recycling company enabling domestic circular supply chain for critical materials around the world, today announced the appointment of Dr. Klaus Kleinfeld to its Board of Directors. Dr. Kleinfeld brings decades of experience leading global industrial and advanced manufacturing businesses, including serving as CEO of two Fortune 500 companies – Siemens AG and Alcoa. His experience growing complex international operations, navigating global markets, and leading large industrial transformations will support Cyclic Materials’ industrial expansion to meet an accelerating global demand. An internationally recognized executive, investor, and entrepreneur, Dr. Kleinfeld has advised multiple U.S. Presidents and global leaders on industrial competitiveness, technology, and economic development. “Cyclic Materials is scaling a strategically vita
HTEC and Motion Applied: Collaboration Built on Performance, Precision, and Innovation20.5.2026 14:18:00 CEST | Press release
HTEC, a global AI-first engineering and digital product development company, and Motion Applied are expanding their collaboration following a successful track record in developing advanced solutions across multiple industries. Motion Applied delivers engineering and technology solutions in motorsport, electrification and transportation, bringing 35 years of top-tier motorsport heritage and race-honed engineering excellence to the development of high-performance systems and their application beyond the track. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260520285726/en/ HTEC, a global AI-first engineering and digital product development company, and Motion Applied are expanding their collaboration following a successful track record in developing advanced solutions for the motorsport and transportation industry. The two companies have worked closely on complex engineering initiatives, contributing to the advancement of high
In our pressroom you can read all our latest releases, find our press contacts, images, documents and other relevant information about us.
Visit our pressroom