NY-MOODY’S-ANALYTICS
4.6.2020 14:02:09 CEST | Business Wire | Press release
According to the Moody’s Analytics baseline economic forecast, real global GDP will fall by 4.5% this year as a result of COVID-19. Our base case for the US suggests that it will take until mid-decade for the economy to return to full-employment. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, describes the outlook in a new paper, Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy .
“COVID-19 has caused massive damage to the global economy. Quickly reopening economies will boost growth by unleashing pent-up demand, but will also raise the specter of a re-intensification of COVID-19 and another economic downdraft, which could lead to a worldwide depression. We construct our economic forecasts to help market participants navigate this daunting uncertainty and make better decisions,” said Mr. Zandi.
The Moody’s Analytics baseline economic forecast represents our view of the most likely trajectory for the global economy. The baseline forecast is part of a set of 12 forecast scenarios , updated monthly, that project alternative economic paths for more than 100 countries as well as sub-national regions in major markets. These scenarios are driven by different assumptions regarding the epidemiology of COVID-19, demand-side factors including monetary and fiscal policies, and longer-run structural forces such as sovereign debt loads and globalization. To help users, each scenario is assigned a probability based on its relative severity and our view of how likely it is to occur.
“Given the unprecedented uncertainty around the path of the virus and the policy response, we maintain several alternative scenarios that cover a range of possible outcomes to help users assess the impact on their businesses and portfolios,” added Mr. Zandi. “Our global team of economists is dedicated to developing scenarios that account for current conditions and the various risks facing economies that may impact their outlook.”
Forecasts are based on the Moody’s Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model, which balances economic theory and empirical behavior and is fully documented and validated. In addition to the probability-weighted monthly scenarios, Moody’s Analytics produces ad hoc thematic economic scenarios that forecast potential outcomes in the event of significant policy shifts or changes to economic fundamentals. Our new Global Debt Crisis thematic scenario examines the consequences of high and rising sovereign debt in the event that global growth slows and governments in both developed and emerging markets are unable to address their high and rising debt loads.
Our economic forecast scenarios can be accessed and downloaded in a variety of formats through a standalone subscription or with our dedicated economic and credit risk modeling tools.
The accuracy of our forecasting was recently recognized in the 2020 FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards, where Moody’s Analytics ranked #1 in 14 categories.
Our economic forecast scenarios are one of a number of Moody’s Analytics solutions that help leaders across industries make better decisions in the COVID-19 environment.
About Moody’s Analytics
Moody’s Analytics provides financial intelligence and analytical tools to help business leaders make better, faster decisions. Our deep risk expertise, expansive information resources, and innovative application of technology help our clients confidently navigate an evolving marketplace. We are known for our industry-leading and award-winning solutions, made up of research, data, software, and professional services, assembled to deliver a seamless customer experience. We create confidence in thousands of organizations worldwide, with our commitment to excellence, open mindset approach, and focus on meeting customer needs. For more information about Moody’s Analytics, visit our website or connect with us on Twitter or LinkedIn .
Moody's Analytics, Inc. is a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO). Moody’s Corporation reported revenue of $4.8 billion in 2019, employs approximately 11,300 people worldwide and maintains a presence in 40 countries.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200604005227/en/
Link:
About Business Wire
Subscribe to releases from Business Wire
Subscribe to all the latest releases from Business Wire by registering your e-mail address below. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Latest releases from Business Wire
MEX Exchange, part of MultiBank Group, Strengthens Global Operations and Technology Leadership with Three Senior Promotions2.9.2026 12:38:00 CEST | Press release
Jeremy Pearce and Beth White promoted to regional COO roles, with James Longo named CTO MEX Exchange, the institutional electronic trading platform of MultiBank Group, has announced three senior promotions as it strengthens its operational and technology leadership to support the continued development and international growth of its institutional trading business. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260902298207/en/ Jeremy Pearce has been promoted to COO – Middle East, Africa & Asia, Beth White to COO – Americas & Europe, and James Longo to Chief Technology Officer (CTO). Jeremy Pearce has been promoted to COO – Middle East, Africa & Asia, Beth White to COO – Americas & Europe, and James Longo to Chief Technology Officer (CTO). The appointments establish dedicated operational leadership across MEX Exchange’s key international markets, supported by experienced technology leadership as the company continues to devel
Compass Pathways Recognized as a 2026 Fierce 50 Breakthrough Honoree2.9.2026 12:30:00 CEST | Press release
Compass Pathways, a biotechnology company dedicated to unlocking urgently needed new treatment options in mental health care, has been named a 2026 Fierce 50 Breakthrough honoree by Fierce Pharma, Fierce Biotech and Fierce Healthcare. The Fierce 50 recognizes 50 individuals and organizations driving advancements in medicine, fostering innovation and shaping the future of biopharma and healthcare. Compass is leading a profound shift in the development of new treatment options in mental health care – moving beyond daily or frequent administration toward an option that could potentially provide durable efficacy with just a few treatments a year that could be life changing for patients. Supported by robust clinical data from three late-stage trials involving more than 1,000 participants living with treatment-resistant depression (TRD), COMP360 psilocybin, if approved by the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA), has the potential to establish a new standard of care for a condition affectin
Exeon Analytics expands management team for next growth phase2.9.2026 10:00:00 CEST | Press release
Exeon Analytics is expanding its management team with two new roles. Wayne Jennings takes on the newly created position of Chief Solutions Officer, and Johan Roman becomes Chief Revenue Officer. The appointments fall in the company’s anniversary year, ten years after its founding as an ETH Zurich spin-off, and create the structure for the next growth phase. Exeon Analytics delivers holistic security analytics for organizations facing growing blind spots, encrypted traffic and regulatory pressure. Wayne Jennings joined Exeon Analytics in July 2024 and initially led Support and Engineering. As Chief Solutions Officer, he is responsible for the technical customer lifecycle, from pre-sales and proof of concept through implementation to long-term technical account management, and for the technical enablement of partners. Before joining Exeon Analytics, he was a Senior Manager in Cybersecurity & Privacy at PwC Switzerland, focusing on threat intelligence and incident response. Johan Roman br
euroAtlantic Airways Expands Long-Haul Fleet With a New Airbus A330-300 Aircraft2.9.2026 09:00:00 CEST | Press release
euroAtlantic Airways (“EAA”), a Njord Partners portfolio company and a leading Portuguese aircraft wet-leasing and charter business, is pleased to announce the induction of a new Airbus A330-300 aircraft into its fleet, further strengthening its long-haul widebody capabilities and reinforcing the Company's growth trajectory in the ACMI and charter markets. The Airbus A330-300 is leased from Jackson Square Aviation (JSA). Only 15 years old, the aircraft is configured in a three-class layout of Business, Premium Economy and Economy, accommodating a total of 290 passengers, and features full lie-flat seating in Business Class along with personal in-seat entertainment monitors fitted across the entire cabin. The aircraft, which will be registered as CS-TGI after completing its normal process of approval with authorities, has already completed its delivery journey, departing Kuala Lumpur (KUL) and arriving into Beja, Portugal (BYJ) on 17 August 2026. This aircraft type is known for its effi
Interoperability and Trust Key to AI Commerce: Alipay+ and S&P Global Report2.9.2026 08:33:00 CEST | Press release
Report shows consumers expect mobile wallets to evolve beyond payments into integrated platforms for travel, rewards, commerce and AI-powered servicesCross-border payments remain fragmented with more than half of consumers lacking access to preferred payment and facing uncertainty over payment acceptance AI adoption is accelerating across discovery and planning, but 43% express privacy concerns, and strengthening trust needed to scale AI-enabled commerce A new report by Alipay+, the unified wallet gateway of Ant International, in partnership with S&P Global, reveals a growing "commerce digitalisation gap", with people increasingly expecting seamless mobile payments and intelligent digital assistance, yet friction – from inconsistent payment acceptance to trust in AI – still define their experience. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260901394299/en/ The study, which surveyed 6,000 consumers across nine markets in
In our pressroom you can read all our latest releases, find our press contacts, images, documents and other relevant information about us.
Visit our pressroom