NY-MOODY’S-ANALYTICS
4.6.2020 14:02:09 CEST | Business Wire | Press release
According to the Moody’s Analytics baseline economic forecast, real global GDP will fall by 4.5% this year as a result of COVID-19. Our base case for the US suggests that it will take until mid-decade for the economy to return to full-employment. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, describes the outlook in a new paper, Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy .
“COVID-19 has caused massive damage to the global economy. Quickly reopening economies will boost growth by unleashing pent-up demand, but will also raise the specter of a re-intensification of COVID-19 and another economic downdraft, which could lead to a worldwide depression. We construct our economic forecasts to help market participants navigate this daunting uncertainty and make better decisions,” said Mr. Zandi.
The Moody’s Analytics baseline economic forecast represents our view of the most likely trajectory for the global economy. The baseline forecast is part of a set of 12 forecast scenarios , updated monthly, that project alternative economic paths for more than 100 countries as well as sub-national regions in major markets. These scenarios are driven by different assumptions regarding the epidemiology of COVID-19, demand-side factors including monetary and fiscal policies, and longer-run structural forces such as sovereign debt loads and globalization. To help users, each scenario is assigned a probability based on its relative severity and our view of how likely it is to occur.
“Given the unprecedented uncertainty around the path of the virus and the policy response, we maintain several alternative scenarios that cover a range of possible outcomes to help users assess the impact on their businesses and portfolios,” added Mr. Zandi. “Our global team of economists is dedicated to developing scenarios that account for current conditions and the various risks facing economies that may impact their outlook.”
Forecasts are based on the Moody’s Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model, which balances economic theory and empirical behavior and is fully documented and validated. In addition to the probability-weighted monthly scenarios, Moody’s Analytics produces ad hoc thematic economic scenarios that forecast potential outcomes in the event of significant policy shifts or changes to economic fundamentals. Our new Global Debt Crisis thematic scenario examines the consequences of high and rising sovereign debt in the event that global growth slows and governments in both developed and emerging markets are unable to address their high and rising debt loads.
Our economic forecast scenarios can be accessed and downloaded in a variety of formats through a standalone subscription or with our dedicated economic and credit risk modeling tools.
The accuracy of our forecasting was recently recognized in the 2020 FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards, where Moody’s Analytics ranked #1 in 14 categories.
Our economic forecast scenarios are one of a number of Moody’s Analytics solutions that help leaders across industries make better decisions in the COVID-19 environment.
About Moody’s Analytics
Moody’s Analytics provides financial intelligence and analytical tools to help business leaders make better, faster decisions. Our deep risk expertise, expansive information resources, and innovative application of technology help our clients confidently navigate an evolving marketplace. We are known for our industry-leading and award-winning solutions, made up of research, data, software, and professional services, assembled to deliver a seamless customer experience. We create confidence in thousands of organizations worldwide, with our commitment to excellence, open mindset approach, and focus on meeting customer needs. For more information about Moody’s Analytics, visit our website or connect with us on Twitter or LinkedIn .
Moody's Analytics, Inc. is a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO). Moody’s Corporation reported revenue of $4.8 billion in 2019, employs approximately 11,300 people worldwide and maintains a presence in 40 countries.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200604005227/en/
Link:
About Business Wire
Subscribe to releases from Business Wire
Subscribe to all the latest releases from Business Wire by registering your e-mail address below. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Latest releases from Business Wire
GN Corporation’s academic event NCRM NICHE commemorates 21st anniversary of NCRM.4.11.2026 07:10:00 CET | Press release
Kamineni Institute, Hyderabad wins XXI Fujio Cup Quiz on stem cells and regenerative medicine. The XXI edition of Fujio Cup Quiz (FCQ) in NCRM NICHE 2026, hosted by GN Corporation, Japan and Nichi-In centre for Regenerative Medicine (NCRM), was won by Sameer Kumar Reddy and Chava Aravind Kumar from Kamineni Academy of Medical Sciences and Research Centre, Hyderabad, India. Ganga Anand Desai and Amith Mathew from Sri Ramachandra Institute of Higher Education and Research, Chennai, India, came runners. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261103893272/en/ NCRM NICHE is held every year in October since 2006, past 21 years. In 2026, in the active knowledge gaining event, Fujio Cup Quiz, 80 teams from institutes of biotechnology, medicine, veterinary, dentistry and allied health sciences participated, among whom four got to the finals. Kamineni Academy of Medical Sciences, Hyderabad, India won the prestigious Fujio Cup.
Global Consumer Trends 2027: Trust, Transparency and Control Take Centre Stage4.11.2026 06:01:00 CET | Press release
Consumers are no longer placing full trust in brands, technology or the future itself. As uncertainty becomes a permanent feature of daily life, greater value is being placed on reliability, transparency and immediate proof of value. Euromonitor International's Top Global Consumer Trends 2027 report finds consumers seeking greater control as uncertainty reshapes consumer behaviour. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261103010032/en/ Euromonitor's Top global consumer trends 2027 Drawing on insights from Passport, Euromonitor International's AI-powered market intelligence platform, the report finds consumers looking for balance and control in a world they no longer expect to be certain. Across markets, consumers are placing greater value on reliability, transparency, community and immediate, tangible benefits. “Consumers are no longer simply buying products or services; they're looking for confidence," said Ali Ang
H2SITE Selected for EU Innovation Fund Support to Advance Industrial-Scale Ammonia Cracking in Rotterdam4.11.2026 06:00:00 CET | Press release
The proposed Rotterdam facility would advance the industrial deployment of H2SITE’s hydrogen technology, with a planned production capacity of 20 tons of hydrogen per day. H2SITE has been selected for support from the European Union’s Innovation Fund for the development of an industrial-scale ammonia cracking project in Rotterdam, subject to the formalisation of the grant agreement. The selection marks an important milestone in the company’s work to scale its technology and support the decarbonisation of hard-to-abate industries. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261103379287/en/ Aerial view of the Botlek in Rotterdam. Photo: T.W. van Urk / Shutterstock The project aims to recover and purify hydrogen from imported ammonia close to industrial consumption centres, advancing the industrial deployment of H2SITE’s technology. H2SITE is working closely with industrial stakeholders in Rotterdam to define the project’s
The Estée Lauder Companies Announces Fiscal 2030 Ambition at Its Capital Markets Experience: China Ecosystem Immersion Event4.11.2026 06:00:00 CET | Press release
Sustainable Mid-Single-Digit Organic Net Sales Growth through Fiscal 2030 Adjusted Operating Margin of 16.5%-18.5% in Fiscal 2030Double-Digit Adjusted EPS Growth through Fiscal 2030 The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE: EL) today announced its fiscal 2030 ambition at its Capital Markets Experience: China Ecosystem Immersion event in Shanghai, China. Stéphane de La Faverie, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Akhil Shrivastava, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, outlined the Company’s targets, including its plans to build on the progress of its Beauty Reimagined strategic vision and the execution of its One ELC operating model to deliver sustainable growth while continuing to drive stronger operating leverage and expanded profitability. “We are now entering a new chapter, moving beyond restoring growth to accelerating sustainable, profitable growth and creating long-term value. Our fiscal 2027 outlook reflects this momentum, with accelerating organic sales gro
FPT, Airbus’ Skywise, and Vietnam Airlines Partner to Advance AI-Powered Airline Operations4.11.2026 05:21:00 CET | Press release
FPT, Vietnam Airlines and Skywise, Airbus' digital services company, have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to explore the development of AI-powered services. By combining Vietnam Airlines’ operational expertise and data, insights from the Skywise platform, and FPT’s capabilities in aviation technology, systems integration and AI engineering, the collaboration will identify practical AI use cases that could enhance performance, strengthen resilience and support better-informed decision-making. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261103646801/en/ The MOU was announced at the Vietnam Aerospace Forum (VAF) in Hanoi on 4 November 2026. The programme will initially focus on fleet reliability, technical operations and disruption management. By combining Skywise’s insights with maintenance planning, parts readiness and flight schedules, the parties will explore AI applications to improve aircraft availability an
In our pressroom you can read all our latest releases, find our press contacts, images, documents and other relevant information about us.
Visit our pressroom