NY-MOODY’S-ANALYTICS
4.6.2020 14:02:09 CEST | Business Wire | Press release
According to the Moody’s Analytics baseline economic forecast, real global GDP will fall by 4.5% this year as a result of COVID-19. Our base case for the US suggests that it will take until mid-decade for the economy to return to full-employment. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, describes the outlook in a new paper, Handicapping the Paths for the Pandemic Economy .
“COVID-19 has caused massive damage to the global economy. Quickly reopening economies will boost growth by unleashing pent-up demand, but will also raise the specter of a re-intensification of COVID-19 and another economic downdraft, which could lead to a worldwide depression. We construct our economic forecasts to help market participants navigate this daunting uncertainty and make better decisions,” said Mr. Zandi.
The Moody’s Analytics baseline economic forecast represents our view of the most likely trajectory for the global economy. The baseline forecast is part of a set of 12 forecast scenarios , updated monthly, that project alternative economic paths for more than 100 countries as well as sub-national regions in major markets. These scenarios are driven by different assumptions regarding the epidemiology of COVID-19, demand-side factors including monetary and fiscal policies, and longer-run structural forces such as sovereign debt loads and globalization. To help users, each scenario is assigned a probability based on its relative severity and our view of how likely it is to occur.
“Given the unprecedented uncertainty around the path of the virus and the policy response, we maintain several alternative scenarios that cover a range of possible outcomes to help users assess the impact on their businesses and portfolios,” added Mr. Zandi. “Our global team of economists is dedicated to developing scenarios that account for current conditions and the various risks facing economies that may impact their outlook.”
Forecasts are based on the Moody’s Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model, which balances economic theory and empirical behavior and is fully documented and validated. In addition to the probability-weighted monthly scenarios, Moody’s Analytics produces ad hoc thematic economic scenarios that forecast potential outcomes in the event of significant policy shifts or changes to economic fundamentals. Our new Global Debt Crisis thematic scenario examines the consequences of high and rising sovereign debt in the event that global growth slows and governments in both developed and emerging markets are unable to address their high and rising debt loads.
Our economic forecast scenarios can be accessed and downloaded in a variety of formats through a standalone subscription or with our dedicated economic and credit risk modeling tools.
The accuracy of our forecasting was recently recognized in the 2020 FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards, where Moody’s Analytics ranked #1 in 14 categories.
Our economic forecast scenarios are one of a number of Moody’s Analytics solutions that help leaders across industries make better decisions in the COVID-19 environment.
About Moody’s Analytics
Moody’s Analytics provides financial intelligence and analytical tools to help business leaders make better, faster decisions. Our deep risk expertise, expansive information resources, and innovative application of technology help our clients confidently navigate an evolving marketplace. We are known for our industry-leading and award-winning solutions, made up of research, data, software, and professional services, assembled to deliver a seamless customer experience. We create confidence in thousands of organizations worldwide, with our commitment to excellence, open mindset approach, and focus on meeting customer needs. For more information about Moody’s Analytics, visit our website or connect with us on Twitter or LinkedIn .
Moody's Analytics, Inc. is a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO). Moody’s Corporation reported revenue of $4.8 billion in 2019, employs approximately 11,300 people worldwide and maintains a presence in 40 countries.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200604005227/en/
Link:
About Business Wire
Subscribe to releases from Business Wire
Subscribe to all the latest releases from Business Wire by registering your e-mail address below. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Latest releases from Business Wire
EMVCo Requests Feedback on Framework for Secure, Interoperable and Scalable Card-Based Agentic Payments1.9.2026 11:00:00 CEST | Press release
EMVCo – the technical body that creates and manages EMV® Specifications and programmes – has released a draft framework to help promote secure, interoperable and scalable card-based agentic payments. The framework provides a foundation for further industry engagement and potential specification development, with all interested stakeholders encouraged to provide their feedback on EMV® Agentic Payments – Framework for Specificationsby Wednesday 30 September. A key focus across the agentic commerce ecosystem is how to establish intent and determine that a consumer delegated authority to an AI agent to make a purchase on their behalf. Following industry input, EMVCo has focused on card-based agentic payment scenarios where intent needs to be managed over time, such as recurring purchases, cumulative budgets and post-transaction activities. These scenarios may require access to a shared intent ‘state’ that persists across multiple participants and their interactions. EMVCo has identified an
ChargePoint Accelerates European Growth Strategy with Appointment of John Saffrett as EVP and Managing Director, Europe1.9.2026 11:00:00 CEST | Press release
Saffrett brings more than 25 years of leadership experience in global mobility, fleet management, and digital transformationAppointment signals ChargePoint's commitment to accelerating European growth as the company targets increasing its European market and revenue share ChargePoint (NYSE: CHPT), a global leader in intelligent electrification and e-mobility, today announced the appointment of John Saffrett as Executive Vice President and Managing Director, Europe. In this role, Saffrett will be responsible for driving ChargePoint's growth strategy across European markets, overseeing sales, customer relationships, partnerships, and market expansion across the continent. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260901888806/en/ ChargePoint's EVP and Managing Director John Saffrett He has served as a member of the company’s Advisory Council since March 2026 and is a seasoned global mobility executive with more than 25 ye
Club Vita Launches German VitaCurves Model as Pension Risk Transfer Market Gathers Momentum1.9.2026 10:00:00 CEST | Press release
Address-based longevity model expands Club Vita's global suite of analytics to cover the UK, US, Canada, Netherlands and Germany Club Vita, an international leader in longevity data analytics, has launched a German calibration of its popular address-based longevity model, VitaCurves, further expanding its international footprint and supporting the growing pension risk transfer (PRT) market in Germany. The launch marks another milestone in Club Vita's international expansion and extends its suite of address-based mortality models, which already provides mortality insights in the UK, United States, Canada and the Netherlands. The German VitaCurvesDEU model is already being used by a leading insurer, helping to provide a more granular understanding of longevity risk across pension and insurance portfolios. VitaCurves uses granular location-based and socio-economic data to identify differences in mortality patterns between sub-populations, enabling insurers, pension funds and other stakeho
JEOL: Launch of the New Benchtop Scanning Electron Microscope “JCM-7000Plus NeoScope™”1.9.2026 09:30:00 CEST | Press release
JEOL Ltd. (President & CEO: Izumi Oi) has developed the benchtop scanning electron microscope (SEM) “JCM-7000Plus” and will begin sales on September 1, 2026. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260825564112/en/ JCM-7000Plus NeoScope™ [Development Background] Benchtop scanning electron microscopes are increasingly used in fields including electrical and electronics, automotive and machinery, steel and metals, chemical and pharmaceuticals. They are utilized not only in research and development but also in manufacturing-related applications, such as quality control and product inspection. In addition, they are adopted in educational settings at middle and high schools as well as universities. Given these diverse applications, there is growing demand for improved operational efficiency, simpler and more automated operation, and enhanced observation, analysis, and measurement performance. To meet these needs, we have e
PPMI and Alipay+ Expand QR Ph for Cross-Border Commerce, Connecting Filipino Businesses with Global Consumers1.9.2026 09:25:00 CEST | Press release
Partnership significantly expands cross-border connectivity, supporting Philippines’ digitalisation ambitions and opening new opportunities for 2.5M local merchants and SMEsAlipay+ connects with 10+ national payment schemes across Asia, Middle East and Latin America The Philippine Payments Management, Inc. (PPMI) and Ant International's unified wallet gateway, Alipay+, have officially enabled Alipay+ on QR Ph, seamlessly connecting the nation's digital payments ecosystem with global commerce. This milestone is in alignment with and supports the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' (BSP) digital payments transformation goals. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260901759507/en/ (L-R) Danny Chung, General Manager of Alipay+ Global Growth Center, Ant International; Carmelita “Melit” Araneta, General Manager of Philippine Payments Management Inc.; Atty. Bridget Rose M. Mesina-Romero, Director, Payments Policy and Development
In our pressroom you can read all our latest releases, find our press contacts, images, documents and other relevant information about us.
Visit our pressroom