CIRIUM
16.12.2021 09:02:12 CET | Business Wire | Press release
The new 2021 Cirium Fleet Forecast reveals that US$2.9 trillion is expected to be spent on approximately 45,000 new and more-fuel-efficient aircraft over the next 20 years.
This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211215005489/en/
Published by Ascend by Cirium, the consultancy arm of aviation analytics firm Cirium , the Cirium Fleet Forecast predicts that 20-year aircraft deliveries globally by 2040 will be 4% higher than previously predicted a year ago.
This outlines a positive outlook for the aviation industry and its recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
COVID-19 significantly affected air travel and so aircraft deliveries, with a 43% reduction during 2020 — 600 fewer aircraft — before the recovery in 2021, albeit still 25% below the 2019 level.
As vaccination programs have been increasing globally, air travel is reopening resulting in 300 more aircraft deliveries in 2021 — despite the issues surrounding Boeing’s 787.
Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy at Ascend by Cirium said: “The 2021 Cirium Fleet Forecast provides an optimistic long-term forecast for aviation which sees the industry return — although structurally differently to before — to more traditional growth paths beyond 2024. Passenger traffic is predicted to grow annually at 3.7% and so the global passenger fleet will be required to increase by almost 22,000 aircraft.”
“If this forecast is realised that would take the global passenger fleet to some 47,200 aircraft by the end of 2040. The aircraft deliveries that are predicted will not only meet the rising traffic demands but will also replace older less-fuel-efficient aircraft.”
China will receive the most deliveries
The number of aircraft deliveries will vary from airline region to region, with Asian markets expected to be the engine for growth.
China is forecast to have the highest passenger traffic growth rate at over 6% — making it the country with the largest amount of deliveries achieving a 20% share.
This is significantly ahead of all other Asia-Pacific countries, which have a combined 22% share in total.
North American airlines are forecast to have 20% share and European carriers to have 17%.
The Middle East is estimated to take a 7% share, but in value terms it will be 11% by virtue of the high number of twin-aisle aircraft deliveries.
Latin America mirrors that of the Middle East with a 7% share, followed by Russia and CIS on 4% and Africa at 3%.
Majority of deliveries will be single-aisle jets
The Fleet Forecast reveals that single-aisle jets will account for 70% of total aircraft deliveries and 55% of delivery value in the next 20 years.
The core of this US$1.6 trillion market continues to be the 150-seat size aircraft, typified by the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 Max 8, which will make up 50% of deliveries.
Popular 180+ seater aircraft, including the A321 neo and B737 Max 10, will take an increasing annual share, with 40% of deliveries over the two decades.
New single-aisle aircraft programs from both Airbus and Boeing are forecast to be developed in the early to mid-2030s.
The US$1.1 trillion twin-aisle aircraft market will focus on B787s and A350s, with ‘mid-sized’ 250-300 seaters taking some 65% of delivery value. The highest capacity markets will be fought over by the A350-1000 and B777-9.
Deliveries in the regional markets are forecast to be worth US$150 billion. Around a third of this figure is for turboprops, led by the 70-seat sector aircraft, with a larger 90-seat size from the 2030s. Future programs include China’s MA700 and an expected new series from Embraer.
Older fleets will be replaced with new generation aircraft
About 80% of the current passenger fleet is forecast to be retired from passenger service between 2021 and 2040.
The replacement of these older aircraft — which have higher fuel burn — with new models, is becoming more important as the industry looks to drive reductions in carbon emissions and focus on sustainability.
Overall, there will be some 19,000 retirements from the end-2020 passenger fleet, in addition to the early phasing out of several relatively young aircraft.
Ascend by Cirium’s analysis forecasts an average economic life of 22 years for single-aisle aircraft and 20 years for twin-aisle aircraft.
Freighters: New builds and conversions are rising
As cargo remains strong, freighter capacity (based on available tonne kilometers) is forecast to grow at 3.3% compared to 2019 and the supply of freighter aircraft is predicted to be around 3,500 aircraft over the next 20 years.
Of this total, 30% are expected to be newbuild freighters and 70% are conversions from passenger to freighter aircraft. Around 1,050 new aircraft are forecast worth US$121 billion.
Passenger-to-freighter conversions are being driven by the growth of e-commerce, which has been boosted by more online shopping during lockdowns.
These conversion programs are focused on newer-generation aircraft types, such as the A321, B737-800, A330 and B777-300ER.
The Cirium Fleet Forecast is an independent outlook of the global commercial passenger and freighter aircraft market, based on the largest data portfolio in aviation and years of expertise.
To download an Executive Summary of the 2021 Cirium Fleet Forecast, click here.
Ends
About Cirium
Cirium brings together powerful data and analytics to keep the world moving. Delivering insight, built from decades of experience in the sector, enabling travel companies, aircraft manufacturers, airports, airlines and financial institutions, among others, to make logical and informed decisions which shape the future of travel, growing revenues and enhancing customer experiences. Cirium is part of RELX, a global provider of information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.
For further information please follow Cirium updates on LinkedIn or Twitter or visit www.cirium.com .
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211215005489/en/
Link:
About Business Wire
Subscribe to releases from Business Wire
Subscribe to all the latest releases from Business Wire by registering your e-mail address below. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Latest releases from Business Wire
Motive and Vivo Brazil Win 2026 Leading Lights Award for Network API Monetization29.10.2026 17:35:00 CET | Press release
Award recognizes live GSMA Open Gateway deployment replacing SMS OTP with SIM-based silent authentication Motive, a global leader in entitlement, connected device and service management and Vivo Brazil, Brazil’s largest operator and part of the Telefónica Group, have won the 2026 Light Reading Leading Lights Award for Outstanding Use Case: Network API Monetization for the first commercial scale deployment of SIM-based silent authentication in Latin America. SMS OTP remains relevant as an authentication method due to its broad reach, working on virtually any type of mobile device. SIM-based silent authentication takes this experience a step further by eliminating the need to receive and manually enter codes. The result is a simpler, more seamless user journey that reduces friction and can help lower abandonment rates while increasing customer conversion and retention. Using Motive’s CAMARA-compliant Entitlement Server, Vivo can now verify a subscriber’s phone number directly without req
REV Ocean Appoints Paul Baribault as CEO Ahead of 2027 Global Operations29.10.2026 15:45:00 CET | Press release
Global conservation and philanthropic leader to spearhead REV Ocean's next chapter, connecting world-class science with international collaboration and ocean protection REV Ocean has appointed Paul Baribault as Chief Executive Officer as the organization moves towards the international debut of its 195-metre research vessel in Rio de Janeiro in April 2027, alongside the UN Ocean Decade Conference. One of the world's largest privately owned research and exploration vessels, REV represents a major philanthropic investment in ocean science. With nine laboratories, advanced deep-sea exploration vehicles and dedicated collaboration facilities, it is designed to give scientists access to world-class research infrastructure and connect their discoveries with the people and institutions able to drive ocean protection. Baribault joins as REV Ocean moves from a decade of engineering and construction into international operations. His mandate will be to build the international partnerships, fundi
Holder Partners Launches Strategic Communications Practice and Appoints Ali Ponte as Director and Practice Lead29.10.2026 15:15:00 CET | Press release
The new practice connects strategic communications and stakeholder engagement with Holder Partners’ capabilities in investigations, disputes, cybersecurity, due diligence and risk advisory. Holder Partners, a multidisciplinary consulting and advisory firm, today announced the launch of its Strategic Communications practice and the appointment of Ali Ponte as Director and Practice Lead. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261027701219/en/ Ali Ponte, Director and Practice Lead of Holder Partners’ Strategic Communications practice. The practice advises leading companies and institutions, their boards, senior executives and counsel on communications, reputation and stakeholder considerations in complex matters and periods of significant change or opportunity. Each engagement is tailored to the client’s objectives and, where relevant, draws on Holder Partners’ broader advisory capabilities. Its strategic counsel, infor
Accertify Formalizes Partner Ecosystem as Fraud, Payments, and Chargebacks Converge Into a Single Risk Surface29.10.2026 15:00:00 CET | Press release
New partner program brings payment providers, orchestrators, commerce platforms, and consultancies together around the industry's largest fraud data community Accertify, a leading fraud decisioning provider whose Predictive Yes Platform helps merchants say yes to more good customers, more revenue, and more growth, today announced the launch of the Accertify Partner Program, a formalized partnership ecosystem connecting payment providers, orchestrators, commerce platforms, and consultancies to Accertify’s network-powered fraud intelligence. Partners can join through two tracks. The Referral track lets partners make a single introduction while Accertify handles the sale, implementation, and support. The Reseller track lets partners sell Accertify on their own contract and own the client relationship and margin. Partners that integrate with Accertify follow a defined certification path, so clients get a tested, supported connection from day one. Every client a partner brings joins a conso
Draslovka to Acquire ex-Natron Energy Battery IP, Completing a Vertically Integrated Western Sodium-Ion Value Chain29.10.2026 14:30:00 CET | Press release
Acquisition gives Draslovka control of former Natron Energy IP portfolio spanning sodium-ion materials, cells and complete battery systems. Deal combines acquired IP with Draslovka’s existing chemistry and European cathode-material capabilities, bringing key parts of the sodium-ion value chain together within one Western-aligned group and its partners. The IP acquisition strengthens Draslovka’s position across the emerging Western sodium-ion battery value chain. Technology targets applications where safety, high power, long cycle life and performance across a wide temperature range are critical, including data centers, grid storage, defense, industrial fleets, telecoms, rail and aviation. The acquired IP will substantively boost Draslovka’s technology offering, a portfolio of transformative and protected innovations for specific industries. Draslovka’s US-based subsidiary, COVORO MINING SOLUTIONS LLC (Covoro), the operator of one of the largest solid sodium cyanide plants in the world,
In our pressroom you can read all our latest releases, find our press contacts, images, documents and other relevant information about us.
Visit our pressroom