CIRIUM
16.12.2021 09:02:12 CET | Business Wire | Press release
The new 2021 Cirium Fleet Forecast reveals that US$2.9 trillion is expected to be spent on approximately 45,000 new and more-fuel-efficient aircraft over the next 20 years.
This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211215005489/en/
Published by Ascend by Cirium, the consultancy arm of aviation analytics firm Cirium , the Cirium Fleet Forecast predicts that 20-year aircraft deliveries globally by 2040 will be 4% higher than previously predicted a year ago.
This outlines a positive outlook for the aviation industry and its recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
COVID-19 significantly affected air travel and so aircraft deliveries, with a 43% reduction during 2020 — 600 fewer aircraft — before the recovery in 2021, albeit still 25% below the 2019 level.
As vaccination programs have been increasing globally, air travel is reopening resulting in 300 more aircraft deliveries in 2021 — despite the issues surrounding Boeing’s 787.
Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy at Ascend by Cirium said: “The 2021 Cirium Fleet Forecast provides an optimistic long-term forecast for aviation which sees the industry return — although structurally differently to before — to more traditional growth paths beyond 2024. Passenger traffic is predicted to grow annually at 3.7% and so the global passenger fleet will be required to increase by almost 22,000 aircraft.”
“If this forecast is realised that would take the global passenger fleet to some 47,200 aircraft by the end of 2040. The aircraft deliveries that are predicted will not only meet the rising traffic demands but will also replace older less-fuel-efficient aircraft.”
China will receive the most deliveries
The number of aircraft deliveries will vary from airline region to region, with Asian markets expected to be the engine for growth.
China is forecast to have the highest passenger traffic growth rate at over 6% — making it the country with the largest amount of deliveries achieving a 20% share.
This is significantly ahead of all other Asia-Pacific countries, which have a combined 22% share in total.
North American airlines are forecast to have 20% share and European carriers to have 17%.
The Middle East is estimated to take a 7% share, but in value terms it will be 11% by virtue of the high number of twin-aisle aircraft deliveries.
Latin America mirrors that of the Middle East with a 7% share, followed by Russia and CIS on 4% and Africa at 3%.
Majority of deliveries will be single-aisle jets
The Fleet Forecast reveals that single-aisle jets will account for 70% of total aircraft deliveries and 55% of delivery value in the next 20 years.
The core of this US$1.6 trillion market continues to be the 150-seat size aircraft, typified by the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 Max 8, which will make up 50% of deliveries.
Popular 180+ seater aircraft, including the A321 neo and B737 Max 10, will take an increasing annual share, with 40% of deliveries over the two decades.
New single-aisle aircraft programs from both Airbus and Boeing are forecast to be developed in the early to mid-2030s.
The US$1.1 trillion twin-aisle aircraft market will focus on B787s and A350s, with ‘mid-sized’ 250-300 seaters taking some 65% of delivery value. The highest capacity markets will be fought over by the A350-1000 and B777-9.
Deliveries in the regional markets are forecast to be worth US$150 billion. Around a third of this figure is for turboprops, led by the 70-seat sector aircraft, with a larger 90-seat size from the 2030s. Future programs include China’s MA700 and an expected new series from Embraer.
Older fleets will be replaced with new generation aircraft
About 80% of the current passenger fleet is forecast to be retired from passenger service between 2021 and 2040.
The replacement of these older aircraft — which have higher fuel burn — with new models, is becoming more important as the industry looks to drive reductions in carbon emissions and focus on sustainability.
Overall, there will be some 19,000 retirements from the end-2020 passenger fleet, in addition to the early phasing out of several relatively young aircraft.
Ascend by Cirium’s analysis forecasts an average economic life of 22 years for single-aisle aircraft and 20 years for twin-aisle aircraft.
Freighters: New builds and conversions are rising
As cargo remains strong, freighter capacity (based on available tonne kilometers) is forecast to grow at 3.3% compared to 2019 and the supply of freighter aircraft is predicted to be around 3,500 aircraft over the next 20 years.
Of this total, 30% are expected to be newbuild freighters and 70% are conversions from passenger to freighter aircraft. Around 1,050 new aircraft are forecast worth US$121 billion.
Passenger-to-freighter conversions are being driven by the growth of e-commerce, which has been boosted by more online shopping during lockdowns.
These conversion programs are focused on newer-generation aircraft types, such as the A321, B737-800, A330 and B777-300ER.
The Cirium Fleet Forecast is an independent outlook of the global commercial passenger and freighter aircraft market, based on the largest data portfolio in aviation and years of expertise.
To download an Executive Summary of the 2021 Cirium Fleet Forecast, click here.
Ends
About Cirium
Cirium brings together powerful data and analytics to keep the world moving. Delivering insight, built from decades of experience in the sector, enabling travel companies, aircraft manufacturers, airports, airlines and financial institutions, among others, to make logical and informed decisions which shape the future of travel, growing revenues and enhancing customer experiences. Cirium is part of RELX, a global provider of information-based analytics and decision tools for professional and business customers. The shares of RELX PLC are traded on the London, Amsterdam and New York Stock Exchanges using the following ticker symbols: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.
For further information please follow Cirium updates on LinkedIn or Twitter or visit www.cirium.com .
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211215005489/en/
Link:
About Business Wire
Subscribe to releases from Business Wire
Subscribe to all the latest releases from Business Wire by registering your e-mail address below. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Latest releases from Business Wire
New Visa Research Finds Consumer Trust is Accelerating the Path to Agentic Commerce9.9.2026 13:00:00 CEST | Press release
Consumers rank Visa as the most trusted brand to deliver AI-powered commerce. Visa (NYSE: V) today announced the Visa Trust Index for agentic commerce, providing new insight into how consumers are navigating the next evolution of AI shopping and payments. While consumers are increasingly using AI across the shopping journey, only 23% of U.S. consumers trust GenAI to handle payment transactions on their behalf. However, confidence in agentic commerce shifts when payments brands come into consideration. Visa emerged as the most trusted brand for AI-powered payments with 61% of respondents saying they would trust Visa to handle agentic transactions. The findings suggest that while consumers are intrigued by agentic commerce, trust remains the key factor determining whether adoption moves from possibility to reality. "AI has the potential to fundamentally reshape how people discover, buy and pay for goods and services, much like e-commerce and mobile commerce did before it," said Oliver Je
NIQ’s Optiq™ Goes Live in Discover, Expanding Access to Trusted Consumer Intelligence9.9.2026 12:45:00 CEST | Press release
Global beta rollout of NIQ’s Optiq Chat later this month will give more clients conversational access to explainable answers grounded in NIQ data and expertise NielsenIQ (NIQ), a leading consumer intelligence company, today announced that Optiq is now live within Discover, NIQ’s platform for accessing, analyzing and applying consumer and market intelligence, advancing the company’s strategy to make trusted consumer intelligence easier to access and apply. Where Ask Arthur introduced new ways to explore and analyze NIQ data through AI within Discover, Optiq expands that experience across conversational AI, mobile access and enterprise AI integrations, giving clients greater flexibility to access and apply NIQ intelligence across the applications and workflows where they make decisions. “AI models are becoming ubiquitous. Trusted intelligence is not,” said Irina Stoian, Chief AI Commercial Officer at NIQ. “That is why we are building the full system. Think of it like a body: harmonized N
Cegid and Silae Join Forces to Create a European Leader in AI-Driven Business Technology9.9.2026 12:32:00 CEST | Press release
Planned Merger Enables Trusted, Fully Integrated Experience Across E-Invoicing, Accounting, Tax, Payroll and HR, Digital Financial Services and Payments for Businesses and their PartnersChristian Pedersen Joins Cegid as CEO to Lead Combined Group Cegid, an AI-driven European leader in cloud business management software for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), and accounting professionals, and Silae, France’s leading payroll and human resources platform, today announced their intention to merge. The combination will create a national technology champion and the leading European technology platform for businesses and their partners, helping them grow safely and efficiently with the support of a fully integrated and compliant suite covering their end-to-end financial and administrative needs. Between them, Cegid, following its recent acquisition of Shine, and Silae power the day-to-day accounting, tax, finance and payroll of 2 million end-customers and more than 15,000 chartered acco
Compass Pathways’ New 52-Week Topline Open-Label Data from Phase 3 COMP005 Trial Demonstrates Additional Benefit from Another COMP360 Dose in Part C Extending Durability Out to 1 Year9.9.2026 12:30:00 CEST | Press release
Notable additional benefit observed with an added reduction in MADRS1 score leading to an average 13-point reduction from baseline at Week 52 with durability extended out to 1 year for participants who were randomized to the 25 mg arm and received an additional doseFor participants randomized to Placebo arm who received first dose of COMP360 25 mg in open-label Part C, data further reinforces that a single 25 mg dose can produce rapid onset, meaningful effect and durabilityFor all participants in Part C who received a 25 mg open-label dose, strong response and remission rates were observed with 40%-45% responders2 and approximately 30% remitters3 across all timepoints 6 weeks post the Part C doseThis 1-year data further supports the belief that, if approved, COMP360 could establish a new standard of care in TRD that can be life-changing for patients − moving beyond daily or frequent administration toward an option that could provide durable benefit with just a few treatments a yearCOMP
New ABB and BCG Report Highlights Growing Role of Direct Current Technologies in Future Power Systems9.9.2026 11:42:00 CEST | Press release
Rapid expansion of AI computing, increasing electrification and rise of renewable energy are driving renewed interest in DC technology as part of future electrical systems Both AC and DC systems have strategically important roles in meeting future electricity demand Establishing common standards and developing DC-specific skills can help accelerate deployment ABB today published a new report, The Strategic Case for Hybrid AC/DC Power: Shaping the Transition to the Next Electrical Architecture, developed in collaboration with Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The report makes the case that direct current (DC) technology is moving from the periphery to the center of industrial, commercial, and digital infrastructure – and that the decisions made by business leaders and policymakers in the next two to three years will determine who shapes that transition and who inherits it. The future of power distribution is not an either-or choice between alternating current (AC) and direct current, but a
In our pressroom you can read all our latest releases, find our press contacts, images, documents and other relevant information about us.
Visit our pressroom