Moody’s Analytics and Allvue Launch Credit Risk Model to Identify Early Signs of Borrower Stress in Private Credit

Moody’s Analytics EDF-X Private Credit Model, powered by Allvue data, gives investors and lenders an earlier view of borrower stress in a rapidly growing market

Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO), a global leader in risk assessment and credit analytics, and Allvue Systems, LLC, a leading technology and data provider for private capital markets, today announced the launch of the Moody’s Analytics EDF-X Private Credit Model, a new forward-looking credit risk model purpose-built for the private credit market. Built on Moody’s deep credit expertise and Allvue’s private credit performance data, the model identifies early signals of borrower stress, such as covenant waivers and payment-in-kind arrangements, well before they show up as missed payments or defaults.

Moody’s projects private credit to approach $4 trillion in assets by 2030, and investors and lenders are increasingly seeking earlier visibility on where risk is building across portfolios. Unlike public credit markets where participants have the benefit of access to published credit ratings, financial disclosures, and transparent pricing, private credit often relies on proprietary credit assessments with limited comparability across positions. Moody’s and Allvue are collaborating to bring greater transparency and insight to the market.

The model draws on de-identified private credit borrower performance data contributed by Allvue. Complementing the existing Moody’s Analytics credit risk models, which reflect the performance of private companies across a broad range of lending markets, it is the first Moody’s model calibrated directly on observed private credit performance, giving it a view of borrower credit risk that reflects the specific dynamics of the asset class. The model separately estimates the likelihood of hard credit events, such as missed payments, and of the soft credit events that often precede them.

“In private credit, the signals that matter often emerge before a missed payment or default,” said Christina Kosmowski, CEO of Moody’s Analytics. “By combining Allvue’s private market data with Moody’s credit intelligence, we can help customers identify borrower stress earlier and bring greater transparency and insight to a rapidly growing market.”

More than 1,000 private capital firms use Allvue solutions, directly or through their fund administrators. Allvue has built one of the industry’s most comprehensive datasets of private credit performance, along with the data and analytics capability that turns it into products the market can use. The data Allvue is contributing to Moody’s is de-identified and contractually governed, and no individual firm is identifiable in it.

“Private credit has grown faster than the infrastructure built to monitor it, and we built a data and analytics business to close that gap,” said Marc Scheipe, CEO of Allvue. “Pairing Allvue’s data with Moody’s analytical depth gives institutions an independent, third-party evaluation of risk across their direct lending portfolios, and that is the kind of transparency that helps this market stay informed.”

The model gives market participants a view of both borrower fundamentals and emerging credit deterioration. It supports portfolio monitoring, manager evaluation, investment selection, and capital allocation, and is now available to customers of both firms through the Moody’s Analytics EDF-X API.

The model joins the growing Moody’s Analytics suite of private credit solutions, including EDF-X CreditGradient, which expresses model-based credit risk signals for unrated borrowers. These are analytical models and are distinct from the credit ratings and other services provided to issuers in the private credit market by Moody’s Ratings, the credit rating agency.

For more than 115 years, Moody’s has helped markets understand and navigate credit risk. Moody’s is bringing that expertise together with new sources of private market data and analytics to provide greater transparency and intelligence as private credit continues to grow.

For more information, visit https://moodys.com/allvue.

About Moody’s Corporation

In a world shaped by increasingly interconnected risks, Moody’s (NYSE: MCO) data, insights, and innovative technologies help customers develop a holistic view of their world and unlock opportunities. With a rich history of experience in global markets and a diverse workforce of approximately 16,000 across more than 40 countries, Moody’s gives customers the comprehensive perspective needed to act with confidence and thrive. Learn more at moodys.com.

About Allvue Systems

Allvue Systems is the leading technology and data platform for private markets, helping investment managers, fund administrators, and other market participants make private markets more transparent, efficient, and connected. Allvue’s AI-powered platform connects data and workflows across the private investment lifecycle, combining mission-critical software with differentiated private markets data and analytics — drawn from de-identified, anonymized, and aggregated data across its platform — to automate complex processes, deliver actionable insights, and enable better-informed decisions.

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