"Next week in China" fra Lundgreen's Capital

Major Data Releases:

• 5 May:  Hong Kong to report advance estimate on Q1 2026 gross domestic product (GDP)
• 6 May:  Hong Kong to report March retail sales data
• 6 May:  RatingDog to report April Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
• 7 May:  China to report April foreign exchange reserves level
• 7 May:  Taiwan to report April Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• 7 May:  Taiwan to report April Producer Price Index (PPI)
• 7 May:  China to report April gold reserves level
• 9 May:  China to report April trade balance, imports and exports

The pace of major data releases is set to normalise in the coming week. Mainland China’s equity markets will remain closed on 4 and 5 May for an extended Labour Day public holiday.

Regarding trade, we expect April exports growth to post a modest recovery. In March, exports rose by 2.5 per cent year-on-year although the apparent slowdown largely reflected distortion due to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday. Goods linked to the semiconductor supply chain and high-end equipment remained notably strong; integrated circuit exports surged by 84.9 per cent in March while traditional consumer goods exports remained under pressure. By destination, US-bound exports fell by 26.5 per cent year-on-year as the marginal easing in tariffs was insufficient to offset the high base effect from March 2025. In contrast, exports to non-US markets continued to expand, rising by 6.8 per cent overall to cushion the drag.

High-frequency indicators also point to a relatively steady exports backdrop. China’s port container throughput rose by 6.3 per cent in March, broadly unchanged from a year earlier, suggesting that export activity remained resilient. In addition, the April PMI new export orders index rose to 50.3, up 1.2 points from the previous month to return under expansionary territory after remaining below the 50 threshold for 23 consecutive months. In particular, the new export orders index for manufactured consumer goods rose above 53, equipment manufacturing climbed above 52, and high-tech manufacturing remained above 51. These indicators suggest that April export data likely rebounded at the margin.

For imports, March growth accelerated further to 27.8 per cent year-on-year primarily due to rising prices. Both import volumes and costs of semiconductors continued to rise against the backdrop of expanding AI-related investment and persistent tightness in global capacity. Higher industrial metals prices, especially copper, also raised imports. In March, the import value of copper ores and concentrates surged by 66.7 per cent year-on-year.

Exports in the second quarter are likely to remain resilient in volume terms, although structural differences may become more pronounced with non-US markets and higher value-added products providing the main support. Meanwhile, headline import growth is likely to stay firm should semiconductor and industrial metal prices remain elevated and if lower oil and gas prices gradually feed through to domestic import costs.

Equity market performance was mixed over the past week. As of Thursday, 30 April, the MSCI China Index was down 1.58 per cent, while the Shanghai Composite rose by 0.79 per cent. The Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices outperformed, gaining 1.12 per cent and 0.26 per cent, respectively. Mid-caps modestly outperformed both large- and small-cap peers, while growth stocks remained slightly ahead of value.

Looking ahead, easing geopolitical risks in April helped support risk appetite towards the A-share market. Daily turnover across the two exchanges has repeatedly exceeded RMB 2 trillion (USD 292 billion) and market pricing has gradually shifted from a defensive, risk-averse framework towards increased focus on earnings validation. Currently, China’s stock market is characterised by elevated crowding and pronounced valuation dispersion, with capital moving away from consumption sectors and favouring resources and technology segments with stronger pricing power.

Investor attention has increasingly converged towards several cyclical themes against the backdrop of first-quarter corporate earnings results. These include the re-rating of resources and computing-related sectors amid a turn in producer prices and the rapid development of AI, the continued profit resilience of high-tech manufacturing supported through export strength, and the gradual bottoming-out of the property-related value chain following sustained policy support.

This piece has been co-produced with Yiyi Capital Limited in Hong Kong, a China specialist and a part of a global financial services group.

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