One in Three Cigarettes in the Region of The Americas in 2025 Is Illicit, New Study Finds

A new report highlights that 31.9% of cigarettes consumed in the Latin America and Canada region are from the illicit market, making it a global hotspot for illicit cigarette consumption, according to Philip Morris International internal estimates and other third-party reports.An estimated 77 billion illicit cigarettes were consumed in 2025 across the 11 countries analyzed in the study, resulting in an estimated USD 8.5 billion in lost tax revenues during the year.

Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM) today emphasizes the importance of effective policymaking in responding to the growing illicit tobacco trade in the Region of the Americas (excluding the United States), where almost one out of every three cigarettes consumed across 11 countries in the region comes from illegal sources.

The results of the study, conducted by KPMG LLP on behalf of Philip Morris Products S.A., reflect that illicit trade is a defining feature of the regional cigarette market. In 2025, an estimated 77 billion illicit cigarettes were consumed across the region, representing 31.9% of total cigarette consumption. The scale of illicit trade highlights the growth of an unregulated parallel economy: the Region of the Americas (excluding the U.S.) has the highest rate of illicit cigarette consumption worldwide, with an incidence more than twice the global average of 15%, according to PMI internal estimates based on industry reports and third-party research studies.

“Reports like this are relevant not only to highlight the illicit cigarette trade problem, but also to invite authorities to search for solutions, which promote technological innovation, intelligence gathering, and data-driven action,” said Marco Hannappel, President, Latin America & Canada. “Philip Morris International believes partnering with governments can help tackle this problem, and that balanced regulations allowing commercialization of new smoke-free products can end smoking, which would in turn indirectly decrease illicit cigarette trade,” he added.

Illicit consumption remains resilient and structurally high across the region, showing that extreme regulations and steep and abrupt tax increases can boost the illicit tobacco trade.

While some governments across the region have imposed heavier taxes and regulations on tobacco products, the current state of illicit trade in the region shows that demand for cheaper products is not disappearing. Instead, it is shifting toward illegal markets, where consumers can find a wide array of illicit cigarettes.

The implications extend beyond the tobacco sector, as the report estimates that illicit cigarette consumption resulted in an estimated USD 8.5 billion in lost tax revenues across the region in 2025.

“These are resources that could otherwise fund public goods such as healthcare, education, infrastructure, and enforcement capacity. Instead, they are captured by an illicit market,” said Hannappel.

Illicit trade is not only a fiscal issue – it is also a public health, security, and institutional challenge. Illegal products bypass controls, expose consumers to unknown risks, and weaken the effectiveness of regulation.

In several countries, illicit trade has reached levels that displace the legal market. Brazil remains the largest illicit cigarette market in the surveyed region by volume and fiscal impact, while in countries such as Panama and Ecuador illicit products account for more than 80% of consumption, illustrating how illicit trade expands when enforcement, regulation, and market conditions fall out of alignment.

Philip Morris Products S.A. commissioned KPMG LLP to develop the analysis to contribute data-driven evidence to policymakers, stakeholders, and enforcement authorities across 11 markets in the Region of the Americas, with the aim of supporting more informed public discussion and more effective policy and enforcement responses.

The 11 countries studied for this analysis are Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico and Panama.

The report was presented at an event hosted by the Council of the Americas (COA) in Washington, D.C., where experts from government, academia, and the private sector discussed the scale of the challenge and the need for coordinated responses.

Key Report Findings:

1. Almost a third of cigarettes consumed in Latin America and Canada are illicit. In 202531.9% of all cigarettes consumed in the region were illicit.
2. A total of 77 billion illicit cigarettes were consumed in 2025 in the 11 countries included in the report across Latin America and Canada. Public enforcement reporting consistently links illicit cigarettes to wider criminal economies, including other contraband and illicit activities.
3. Illicit trade is draining public finances at scale. An estimated USD 8.5 billion in tax revenues was lost in 2025 due to illicit cigarette consumption.
4. Illicit trade proved more resilient than the legal market. Illicit cigarette use declined much less than total cigarette consumption in 2025.
5. Brazil is the largest illicit cigarette market in the region. In 2025, it accounted for 41.8 billion illicit cigarettes, representing 54% of total illicit consumption across the 11 markets.
6. Panama and Ecuador have reached critical levels of illicit consumption. Illicit cigarettes account for approximately 89% of total consumption in Panama and 84% in Ecuador.
7. Illicit Whites (cigarettes that are in most cases legally produced in a country, but with the sole intention of being smuggled into other markets) dominate the illegal market. They represent 73% of all illicit cigarettes, equivalent to approximately 56.5 billion cigarettes.

A detailed overview of the results, country profiles and methodology of the study is available here.

For more information about PMI’s illicit trade prevention efforts, visit PMI.com.

Note to editors

Definitions of illicit cigarette categories, as detailed in the KPMG report:

• Counterfeit: “Cigarettes that are illegally manufactured and sold by a party other than the original trademark owner.”
• Illicit whites: “Cigarettes that are usually manufactured legally in one country/market but which the evidence suggests have been smuggled across-borders during their transit to the destination market under review where they have limited or no legal distribution and are sold without payment of tax.”
• C&C: “Counterfeit and contraband, including illicit whites. Contraband refers to genuine products that have been either bought in a lower-tax country and which exceed legal border limits or acquired without taxes for export purposes to be illegally re-sold (for financial profit) in a higher priced market.”
• Other C&C: “Other C&C comprises contraband which does not fall within the Illicit Whites definition. It is often duty paid product. There may also be counterfeit of brands that are not trademark-owned by participant manufacturers.”

Philip Morris International: A Global Smoke-Free Champion

Philip Morris International is a leading international consumer goods company, actively delivering a smoke-free future and evolving its portfolio for the long term to include products outside of the tobacco and nicotine sector. The company’s current product portfolio primarily consists of cigarettes and smoke-free products, including heat-not-burn, nicotine pouch and e-vapor products. Our smoke-free products are available for sale in over 105 markets, and as of December 31, 2025, PMI estimates they were used by over 43 million legal-age consumers around the world, many of whom have moved away from cigarettes or significantly reduced their consumption. The smoke-free business accounted for 41.5% of PMI’s full year 2025 total net revenues. Since 2008, PMI has invested over $16 billion to develop, scientifically substantiate and commercialize innovative smoke-free products for adults who would otherwise continue to smoke, with the goal of completely ending the sale of cigarettes. This includes the building of world-class scientific assessment capabilities, notably in the areas of pre-clinical systems toxicology, clinical and behavioral research, as well as post-market studies. Following a robust science-based review, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has authorized the marketing of Swedish Match’s General snus and ZYN nicotine pouches and versions of PMI’s IQOS devices and consumables - the first-ever such authorizations in their respective categories. Versions of IQOS devices and consumables and General snus also obtained the first-ever Modified Risk Tobacco Product authorizations from the FDA. With a strong foundation and significant expertise in life sciences, PMI has a long-term ambition to expand into wellness areas. References to “PMI”, “we”, “our” and “us” mean Philip Morris International Inc., and its subsidiaries. For more information, please visit www.pmi.com and www.pmiscience.com.

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