"Next week in China" fra Lundgreen's Capital

Major Data Releases:

• 9 March: China to report February Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• 9 March: China to report February Producer Price Index
• 10 March: China to report February M0, M1 and M2 money supply growth rates
• 10 March: China to report February trade balance, import and export growth rates
• 10 March: China to report February new renminbi-denominated loans
• 10 March: China to report February Total Social Financing (TSF)
• 11 March: China ends “Two Sessions” of the National People’s Congress and the Political Consultative Conference

Next week will be an important one for China’s economic calendar, with seven major indicators scheduled for release. Inflation and credit data will attract particular attention as markets assess price dynamics and financing conditions following the Lunar New Year holiday period.

For CPI, China will adopt 2025 as the new base year for comparing price movements between 2026 to 2030. As part of the revision, several categories have been removed, merged, or restructured while new product and service categories have been introduced for price tracking to reflect evolving consumption patterns, such as home security equipment, elderly products, dishwashers, vehicle electricity, photography services, and internet medical services.

February CPI is estimated to rise to around 0.9 per cent year-on-year from January’s 0.2 per cent. Meanwhile, PPI is projected to increase by about 0.1 per cent month-on-month while the year-on-year decline is seen narrowing to roughly -1.2 per cent from -1.4 per cent. The expected rebound in CPI largely reflects seasonal factors. Unlike last year when the Lunar New Year occurred in January, this year’s celebration shifted in timing together with rising oil prices which is likely to produce an annualised increase coming from last year’s -0.7 per cent reading.

Lunar New Year festivities during the second half of February boosted travel and entertainment demand while temporarily reducing labour supply, which are expected to support service-sector price increases. In addition, movements in international oil prices pushed domestic retail gasoline prices higher, estimated to have risen by 3.2 per cent for the month.

Credit conditions will also be closely monitored. New TSF loans in February is estimated at RMB 2.34 trillion (USD 339 billion), with year-on-year growth expected to be around 8.19 per cent. New RMB loans are projected at RMB 930 billion (USD 135 billion), up by RMB 280 billion (USD 41 billion) year-on-year. Medium- to long-term household loans are expected to decline slightly while corporate loans and short-term household borrowing may increase, indicating some improvement in credit demand.

From a structural perspective, credit conditions may show modest recovery despite the continued weakness in the property sector. New home sales volumes in major cities have noticeably declined, limiting growth in medium- to long-term household loans. Meanwhile, although the February industrial PMI fell into contraction territory, rising rediscount rates towards the end of the month suggest that corporate credit demand may have begun recovery. High-frequency data also indicate that government bond financing has moderated from 2025’s high base. Net financing of local government refinancing bonds reached RMB 516.4 billion (USD 75 billion), which could lead to weaker-than-expected corporate credit growth.

China equities mirrored the global slide in the past week. As of Thursday, 5 March, the MSCI China Index declined by 4.93 per cent, while the Shanghai Composite fell by 1.3 per cent, the Shenzhen Component dropped 2.8 per cent, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.82 per cent. Large-cap stocks outperformed small and mid-caps, and value sectors led growth. Looking ahead, escalating tensions in the Middle East have contributed to rising risk-aversion sentiment, suggesting that A-share markets may experience short-term volatility with clear sectoral divergence. Over the medium to long term, policy support, gradually improving domestic economic fundamentals, and relatively reasonable valuations are expected to provide a foundation for continued market stabilisation and recovery.

This piece has been co-produced with Yiyi Capital Limited in Hong Kong, a China specialist and a part of a global financial services group.

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