AI Is Resetting the Rules of Growth in CPG

NIQ and Kearney analysis finds challenger brands gaining share as AI reshapes innovation and product discovery

NielsenIQ (NYSE: NIQ), a global leader in consumer intelligence, today released The New Growth Frontier. This new analysis, produced in collaboration with Kearney, reveals that artificial intelligence is reshaping how consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands innovate and compete—with profound effects on innovation, product discovery, and consumer path to purchase.

Over the past three years, established niche brands increased US market share by 1.5 percentage points (2022–2025), while large and mid-size national brands declined by 2.1 percentage points, according to NIQ retail measurement data across all categories.

This data signals a structural shift: Scale remains powerful, but scale is no longer destiny. Competitive advantage increasingly depends on agility, precision, and the ability to surface effectively in AI-mediated discovery environments.

“We are entering a precision era in CPG,” said Marta Cyhan-Bowles, Chief Communications Officer and Global Head of Marketing, NIQ. “The growth levers that larger brands have come to rely on—like mergers and acquisitions—are no longer reliable paths to sustainable, long-term growth. Consumer-led innovation and agentic discoverability now matter more than historical scale. The winners will be those who combine AI-driven speed with deep consumer understanding, agentic systems proficiency, and disciplined measurement.”

AI Is Equalizing Opportunity Across the Industry

AI is democratizing capabilities that once required significant investment—from concept testing and formulation optimization to creative iteration and scenario modelling. Challenger brands are leveraging these tools to boost their historical strengths: moving more quickly, leading digitally, and leaning into meaningful consumer trends. NIQ data shows emerging brands are winning in categories where AI-led innovation and discovery are accelerating, such as Pet Care, Personal Care, and Health & Wellness.

At the same time, consumer behavior is shifting rapidly. NIQ research shows:

• 74% of shoppers are using AI for some form of product discovery
• 54% use AI for research
• 20% use AI directly for shopping

As AI tools increasingly mediate research and purchase decisions, discoverability has become as important as distribution.

Agentic Commerce Is Reshaping Discovery

The analysis also highlights the rise of agentic commerce—retail and large-language model (LLM) environments where AI systems filter options, generate recommendations, and influence purchasing decisions.

AI assistants are increasingly embedded in retailer websites, search tools, and shopping platforms, changing how products are surfaced and ranked. In these environments, structured product attributes, contextual alignment, reviews, and trust signals play a growing role in determining visibility—with relevance to consumer goals ultimately influencing results.

“AI systems prioritize clarity and relevance,” said Katherine Black, Partner at Kearney. “Brands that ensure their products are legible to AI with structured data, defined need states, and credible signals are better positioned to surface in these new discovery pathways.”

Traditional Growth Levers Face New Pressure

As AI reshapes both innovation and discovery, traditional growth strategies are under pressure. Line extensions often redistribute share rather than expand categories, and acquisitions are becoming more complex in a market defined by shifting consumer expectations and AI-accelerated competition.

While M&A can complement innovation, it is no longer a reliable standalone path to durable growth. In an environment where discoverability and early traction determine success, brands must build relevance—not simply buy it.

Why It Matters

The convergence of AI-driven innovation and AI-mediated discovery is raising the bar across the CPG ecosystem:

• Large, established brands must modernize and refocus innovation pipelines to maintain momentum.
• Emerging brands can leverage AI to accelerate experimentation and trial.
• Retailers must adapt as AI integrations influence traffic, assortment, and monetization dynamics.

The analysis concludes that sustainable growth in the AI era will depend on:

• Grounding innovation in validated, unmet consumer needs
• Optimizing product content for AI-driven discovery
• Integrating AI strategically across ideation, testing, and activation
• Monitoring early launch signals and adjusting quickly

With operations spanning more than 90 countries and approximately $7.2 trillion (USD) in global consumer spend, NIQ combines structured retail data, behavioral intelligence, and advanced analytics to help brands align AI acceleration with real consumer demand.

The full analysis is available here.

About NIQ:

NielsenIQ (NIQ) is a leading consumer intelligence company, delivering the most complete understanding of consumer buying behavior and revealing new pathways to growth. Our global reach spans over 90 countries covering approximately 85% of the world’s population and more than $7.2 trillion in global consumer spend. With a holistic retail read and the most comprehensive consumer insights—delivered with advanced analytics through state-of-the-art platforms—NIQ delivers the Full View™. For more information, please visit niq.com.

About Kearney:

For 100 years, Kearney has been a leading management consulting firm and trusted partner to three-quarters of the Fortune Global 500 and governments around the world. With a presence across more than 40 countries, our people make us who we are. We work impact first, tackling your toughest challenges with original thinking and a commitment to making change happen together. By your side, we deliver—value, results, impact.

Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer

This press release regarding NIQ and Kearney analysis, may contain forward-looking statements regarding anticipated consumer behaviors, market trends, and industry developments. These statements reflect current expectations and projections based on available data, historical patterns, and various assumptions. Words such as “expects,” “anticipates,” “projects,” “believes,” “forecasts,” “plan,” “look ahead,” and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future outcomes and are subject to inherent uncertainties, including changes in consumer preferences, economic conditions, technological advancements, and competitive dynamics. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. While we strive to base our insights on reliable data and sound methodologies, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect future events or circumstances, except to the extent required by applicable law.

© 2026 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.

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