"Next week in China" fra Lundgreen's Capital

Major Data Releases:

• 24 November: Taiwan to report October employment and unemployment statistics
• 25 November: Hong Kong to report October external merchandise trade data
• 27 November: China to report October industrial profits of enterprises above the designated size
• 28 November: Macau to report Q3 2025 and October external merchandise trade data
• 28 November: Taiwan to report Q3 2025 gross domestic product, national accounts
• 28 November: Taiwan to release economic forecasts for Q4 2025, full year 2026
• 30 November: National Bureau of Statistics of China to report November Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)

Major data releases for the Chinese economy are expected in the coming days.

We anticipate November’s Manufacturing PMI to remain in contraction territory, reflecting persistent softness in industrial activity. The index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49.0 in October, undershooting market expectations. While seasonal factors such as reduced working days during the Mid-Autumn Festival contributed to the decline, the underlying weakness in factory activity remained even after adjusting for holidays. Both supply and demand were muted, with the new orders index slipping to 48.8.

Beyond seasonal distortions, the fading impact of the earlier “two new” or trade-in policy stimulus and continued real estate market adjustment weighed down manufacturing demand. Meanwhile, efforts to curb excessive competition (“anti-involution”) in certain sectors have constrained the inventory clearings, amplifying the decline in the production index. On the cost side, the main raw materials price index held at 52.5, supported by anti-price war measures for coal and related industries. However, ex-factory prices fell further to 47.5, underscoring weak consumer demand and sluggish real estate investment. The trajectory of industrial product prices and their potential inflationary impact remains uncertain.

Turning to profits of industrial firms, we expect a slight moderation from the previous period. From January to September, profits of enterprises above the designated size totaled RMB 53.73 trillion (USD 7.5 trillion), up 3.2 per cent year-on-year (previously 0.9 per cent). Inventory dynamics offer additional insight: nominal inventory growth rebounded to 2.8 per cent, while real inventory growth continued to bottom out at 5.2 per cent, with the pace of month-on-month decline narrowing. This suggests firms are maintaining a tight balance between production and sales, adjusting output dynamically amid cautious demand expectations. 

China equities pulled back after recent gains. As of Thursday, 20 November, the MSCI China Index fell by 3.08 per cent week-on-week. The Shanghai Composite declined 1.49 per cent, the Shenzhen Component by 1.78 per cent, and the ChiNext Index by 2.22 per cent from last week’s finish. Large-cap stocks outperformed mid- and small-cap peers, while value names retained a slight edge over growth counterparts. Looking ahead, as policymakers aim to secure a stable year-end finish, profit recovery for industrial enterprises in the fourth quarter should receive targeted support. However, near-term market volatility may rise, driven by profit-taking and cautious sentiment.

This piece has been co-produced with Yiyi Capital Limited in Hong Kong, a China specialist and a part of a global financial services group.

Indholdet er udarbejdet sammen med vores samarbejdspartner, men repræsenterer vores egne holdninger og vurderinger. Indholdet skal udelukkende opfattes som af informativ karakter, og ikke som en opfordring, eller anbefaling, til at købe eller sælge værdipapirer eller andre finansielle instrumenter.

Indholdet er også offentliggjort på app'en Lundgreen's Investor Insights, som kan downloades gratis. Her finder man meget andet spændende content, bl.a. også vores egen podcast.