New report: Gen AI could cost Danish music industry €921 million by 2030 - unless political action is taken

Danish music is facing a serious economic threat due to artificial intelligence. This is the conclusion of a new report from the rights management organisation Koda and the industry association IFPI Denmark.

According to the report, prepared by HBS Economics and referencing a similar analysis from the international rights organisation CISAC, the current development in AI creates a distorted and unequal competitive environment between human-created music and fully AI-generated music. This imbalance could lead to significant revenue losses for the Danish music industry. In 2030 alone, fully AI-generated music is expected to result in an annual revenue loss of approximately €271 million - equivalent to 28 percent of total revenue.

Moreover, AI services are being trained on copyrighted music created by Danish music creators without permission or remuneration.

Koda and IFPI: AI must be developed responsibly and with respect for artists’ rights
Considering the new report, Koda and IFPI emphasize that this is not about opposing AI, but about promoting responsible AI development with a focus on transparency, permission, and fair compensation.

Nicky Trebbien, Director of Legal & Politics at Koda, states:

“These are alarming figures revealed by the report. And they stem from the fact that AI services are deliberately exploiting music creators’ livelihoods - without permission and without payment. On this unlawful foundation, they have built services capable of generating music that directly competes with the very human-made music that forms the basis of their business. That is unfair, unethical, and constitutes distortion of competition - it is not innovation,” says Nicky Trebbien, and continues:

“If more than a quarter of the economy disappears from the value chain, the entire fabric of the musical ecosystem begins to unravel. It becomes increasingly difficult to sustain a livelihood as a music creator, and we risk leaving the creation of future music to tech companies instead of real people with something meaningful to express. We do not believe this is acceptable for us as a society. That’s why political action is needed now - to establish proper regulation of AI services and to safeguard the financial foundation for Danish music.”

Rikke Johan Bak, Director of Communications and Public Affairs at IFPI Denmark, states:

“This report documents for the first time the real economic threat to Danish music from fully AI-generated music. We’re not talking about future scenarios, but a development that is already underway. It is therefore crucial that we actively ensure responsible AI development where the rights of music creators are respected - otherwise, the foundation of the Danish music economy will be undermined.”

Denmark should take the lead
Based on the report’s conclusions, Koda and IFPI Denmark call for the establishment of clear and responsible frameworks for the use of generative AI in the music industry. This is not about stopping AI, but about ensuring that development occurs with respect for artists’ rights and the sustainability of the music economy.

Koda and IFPI Denmark urge the government to use Denmark’s upcoming EU presidency to establish clear rules, including requirements for explicit permission from rights holders and transparency from AI companies when using music to train their models and offer AI services. As with all other uses of music, license agreements must be made to ensure fair compensation.

On 18 September, the Ministry of Culture’s conference on copyright and artificial intelligence will focus on precisely this issue. Experts and rights holders will discuss the legal challenges and possible solutions for future AI regulations.

Key figures from the analysis: Danish figures (HBS Economics):

• Revenue in 2024: €853 million
• Expected revenue in 2030 without AI: €966 million
• Expected revenue in 2030 with AI: €695 million
• Annual loss in 2030: €271 million (28%)
• Accumulated loss from 2025 to 2030: €921 million