Sampo plc

Sampo Group’s results for January-March 2025

Sampo plc, interim statement, 7 May 2025 at 8:30 am EEST

Sampo Group’s results for January-March 2025

• Top-line growth stood at 9 per cent on a currency adjusted basis on the back of continued strong development in target growth areas within the private operations in the Nordics and the UK.
• Underwriting margins benefited from a benign winter and large claims, and a continued positive underlying trend in the Nordics, leading the combined ratio to improve to 84.6 per cent.
• The underwriting result increased by 30 per cent on a currency adjusted basis to EUR 336 million as a result of the strong growth and improvement in margins.
• Operating EPS strengthened by 9 per cent to EUR 0.11, as the strong underwriting result more than offset softer investment returns and an increase in the share count.
• Following a detailed assessment, estimated synergies from the Topdanmark integration have been raised to EUR 140 million in 2028 from EUR 95 million (pre-tax) on higher expected cost benefits.
• After the strong first quarter performance, the outlook for 2025 underwriting result has been increased to EUR 1,400–1,500 million from EUR 1,350–1,450 million.
• Solvency II coverage increased to 180 per cent from 177 per cent at year end, and financial leverage amounted to 25.8 per cent.

“The first quarter of 2025 has provided a strong start to the year, underpinned by robust growth, disciplined pricing, and continued high retention from satisfied customers. We are confident in our ability to build on this positive momentum throughout the year and remain an attractive asset for shareholders who value stability and operational excellence”, says Torbjörn Magnusson, Sampo Group CEO.

Key figures

Gross written premiums and insurance revenue include broker revenues. Net profit for the comparison period refers to Net profit for the equity holders. Per share figures for the comparison period are adjusted for the share split in February 2025. The figures in this report have not been audited.

GROUP CEO’S COMMENT

Sampo delivered an excellent first quarter with growth of 9 per cent in the top-line and 30 per cent in underwriting profits on a currency adjusted basis, as we continued to capitalise on our strong positioning and rational markets conditions. We remain confident in the outlook for the year and have increased the estimated synergies from the integration of Topdanmark significantly.

As a northern European P&C insurer, the first quarter is typically the reporting period most influenced by weather. This year, Norway saw a fairly cold and snowy winter with some flooding and storms, while conditions in the other Nordic countries and the UK were more benign. However, underlying margin development also remained good and in line with recent trend with a 20 basis point improvement in the Nordic underlying risk ratio.

In the Private Nordic business, we kept our normal focus on customer value and on setting the right prices. Retention levels continued to increase slightly, and the combined ratio came down to 83.8 per cent, a very strong start of the year. We continued to observe a gradual but persistent movement of customers toward our digital tools with digital sales increasing by 20 per cent year on year. In Private UK, we negotiated with a competitive but rational market by finding pockets of attractively priced business in home, van, and bike insurance as well as in telematics. The latter has been transformed by new technology recently, enabling more accurate driving data to be collected and interpreted at a lower cost. With normal weather, we produced a combined ratio of 88.7 per cent.

This solid development in the private business drove a 9 per cent top-line increase at group level, continuing the strong growth momentum from recent years with growth of 12 and 11 per cent in 2024 and 2023, respectively. Now and then, there are regulatory reviews of various aspects of our business. We always strive to achieve good long-term relationships with our customers, where high retentions, stability, customer satisfaction, and fair claims settlements are key. This has even meant that we have gained advantages from some previous regulatory reforms, like GIPP in the UK, and a focus on these aspects of stability for our customers is as important as sales.

For modern P&C insurers, efficiency gains are primarily achieved through investments in digitalisation and technology, and the corresponding processes. With this in mind, the acquisition of Topdanmark enables us to supercharge our performance in Denmark. Since completing the deal in October last year, we have re-assessed the synergy potential available, now with full insight into the business, and increased our synergy estimate to EUR 140 million pre-tax in 2028, from the original EUR 95 million. All of the increase comes from cost synergies. The majority will derive from IT transformation, as we plan to overhaul our Danish operations with new, state-of-the-art core systems and applications, to the benefit of both customers and shareholders.

Conditions in the Nordic and UK P&C insurance markets in which we operate have remained very healthy with rational competition. Demand for P&C insurance products has been stable as it tends to be through the economic cycle, particularly in our resilient Northern European economies and our balance sheet continues to be in excellent shape. Although no company is an island, I feel that we are as well positioned as one can be to weather the potential effects from the recent increase in political and economic uncertainty. Indeed, given our strong cash flow profile and solid balance sheet, capital returns remain a central discussion point with our investors. Sampo has a strong track-record of attractive shareholder returns that we intend to stay true to. As mentioned with our full-year 2024 results, we expect to launch a share buyback programme in 2025 and we will give an update on this no later than with our second quarter 2025 results, which will be roughly 12 months after the launch of our last programme. In the interim, I hope to gain additional clarity on potential holding company asset disposals.

To conclude, the first quarter of 2025 has provided a strong start to the year, underpinned by robust growth, disciplined pricing, and continued high retention from satisfied customers. We are confident in our ability to build on this positive momentum throughout the year and remain an attractive asset for shareholders that value stability and operational excellence.

Torbjörn Magnusson
Group CEO

OUTLOOK

Operating environment and assumptions

The operating environment in the markets in which Sampo operates remains broadly unchanged from the start of 2025, both in terms of competitive and claims cost development dynamics. The first quarter saw better than expected weather and large claims below budget but these do not change Sampo’s forward view of claims cost development.

Outlook for 2025

Following a favourable outcome on weather claims relative to normal levels, and, to a lesser degree, benign large claims and increased Topdanmark synergies, Sampo has decided to adjust its 2025 financial outlook to:

• Group insurance revenue: EUR 8.8–9.1 billion (from EUR 8.7–9.0 billion), representing growth of 5–9 per cent year-on-year.
• Group underwriting result: EUR 1,400–1,500 million (from EUR 1,350–1,450 million), representing growth of 6–14 per cent year-on-year.

Any forecast of Sampo’s underwriting result is subject to estimates for weather claims, large claims, prior year development, and certain other items that may vary periodically and are out of Sampo’s control, meaning regular updates of the forecast are needed to reflect actual outcomes. Moderate deviations against normal and budget levels are typical on a quarterly basis and Sampo intends to broadly reflect these in the outlook statement in its quarterly reports. In addition to the underwriting result, Sampo derives a material share of its earnings from returns on its investment portfolio and insurance finance income and expense, meaning changes in the outlook cannot be assumed to translate one-for-one into net profit. Sampo does not provide an outlook for its net financial result.

The outlook for 2025 is consistent with Sampo’s 2024–2026 financial targets of delivering a combined ratio below 85 per cent annually and operating EPS growth of more than 7 per cent annually on average.

The outlook is subject to uncertainty related to occurrence and estimation of the cost of P&C claims, foreign exchange rates, and competitive dynamics. Revenue forecasts, in particular, are subject to competitive conditions, which may change rapidly in some areas, such as the UK motor insurance market. The revenue and underwriting profit figures in the outlook are based on currency exchange rates as of the latest reporting date.

SAMPO PLC
Board of Directors

The Interim Statement for January-March 2025 in its entirety, the Investor Presentation and a video review with Group CEO Torbjörn Magnusson are available at www.sampo.com/result.

A conference call for investors and analysts will be arranged today 7 May at 11:30 am Finnish time (9:30 am UK time). To ask questions, please join the teleconference by registering using the following link:  https://palvelu.flik.fi/teleconference/?id=50051475

The conference call can also be followed live at www.sampo.com/result. A recorded version and a transcript will later be available at the same address.

For more information, please contact

Knut Arne Alsaker, Group CFO, tel. +358 10 516 0010
Sami Taipalus, Head of Investor Relations, tel. +358 10 516 0030
Maria Silander, Communications Manager, Media Relations, tel. +358 10 516 0031

Distribution:
Nasdaq Helsinki
Nasdaq Stockholm
Nasdaq Copenhagen
London Stock Exchange
FIN-FSA
The principal media
www.sampo.com

Attachment

• Interim Statement for January - March 2025