Russian aggression against Ukraine: Discussing implications for European security

Ukrainian Marine and drone operator Yaryna Chornohuz opened the discussion with reflection on her five years of military service. She emphasized that Ukrainians had long felt the threat of invasion prior to 2022, noting how even as a literature student she recognized Russia's intentions while "politicians around the world tried to ignore that fact." 

Yaryna’s decision to enlist was not only a personal duty, but an awareness that history does not allow moments of weakness. She recalled how, before the full-scale invasion, many ignored the ongoing conflict in the east of Ukraine, allowing Russia to strengthen its position. Now, three years into the full-scale war, she warned that the same approach could prove fatal: "What Russia right now wants from the world is forgetfulness," referencing the period from 2014-2022 when Ukrainian soldiers were "being killed in total silence, with the ignorance of the old world." She described why surrender is not an option for Ukrainians like herself: "If they occupy our territories, the family like mine, like me, my husband, my daughter, my parents, who always used to be Ukrainian speaking, patriotic Ukrainians with Ukrainian identity, will be executed. I know that very clearly."

Her poetry, read at the beginning of the event, painted clear images of Ukrainian soldiers standing alone and carrying the burdens of everyone's security on their shoulders: 

“ [...] all shoulders are too weak to support a single heart

strong words are always too weak 

a strong body is mortal

a voice won't die out if it knows how to be

there's a soldier girl in every woman 

who will have to pass through the dark alone 

and all help is unnecessary 

and all shoulders are redundant [...]” 

Maksym Butkevych, a Ukrainian human rights activist and journalist who spent over two years in Russian captivity, emphasized that "Ukrainians are determined to fight tooth and nail" because they are defending far more than just territory, but their very existence and the values of a free Europe. He pointed out that Russia has historically used its military might to impose its influence over neighboring states, and limited Western response, from the 2008 invasion of Georgia to the 2014 annexation of Crimea emboldened Russia, leading to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. He questioned whether European nations outside Ukraine fully grasp that "this is not a purely Russian-Ukrainian story" but a threat to the entire European security architecture. 

Michael Aastrup Jensen, chairman of Denmark's Foreign Policy Committee, reinforced this concern, citing intelligence reports that indicate Russia is preparing for potential "regional conflict against a NATO member" if the war in Ukraine ends favorably for Russia. He also highlighted Denmark's significant contribution as the fourth-largest donor of military equipment to Ukraine globally and first in the world by GDP per capita. Jensen added that Denmark remains committed, but European unity is fragile. If countries begin wavering in their commitment, Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian forces will be significantly weakened. 

Edward Lucas, non-resident senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, pointed out that history has shown the dangers of complacency, referencing past Western failures in deterring Russian aggression. He noted that, in the 1930s, many Western leaders sought to avoid confrontation with Nazi Germany, hoping that diplomatic engagement would prevent war. A similar pattern, he argued, emerged in the post-Cold War era, when Russia was allowed to violate international norms without serious consequences. Even after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, responses from the West remained limited.

Lucas emphasized that Europe must move beyond "bewilderment, fear, and grief" toward action. He highlighted that the Nordic-Baltic region alone has a larger GDP than Russia, stating, "We can do this, we just have to want to do it." 

The failure of past security agreements, particularly the Budapest Memorandum, was a big topic of discussion. In 1994, Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia. However, when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and later launched a full-scale invasion in 2022, those guarantees proved meaningless. 

Maksym Butkevych underscored how this experience has shaped Ukrainian skepticism toward non-binding international agreements: "Ukrainians are not interested in memorandums, declarations, even agreements that are not followed up by technical implementation plans and, preferably, physical presence of those who guarantee security on the ground". War lessons are that security must be backed by tangible measures—whether that means NATO membership, military bases in Ukraine, or concrete defense commitments from Western allies. 

Edward Lucas supported this sentiment and advocated for initiatives like a Defense Bank, which would finance long-term military support for Ukraine, and a Sky Shield missile defense system to protect Ukrainian territory. The panelists agreed that unless Ukraine receives enforceable security guarantees, Russia will continue to see the country as an easy target for continued future aggression. They stressed that the international community must learn from past mistakes and ensure that any future peace agreement is backed by concrete military and economic support.

Ukraine’s experience with broken security promises—from the Budapest Memorandum to the present day—has made one thing clear: without concrete commitments and real deterrence, agreements offer no real protection. Lasting security must be built on action, not assurances. 

“As the war enters its fourth year, the choices made now will shape the future of Ukraine and Europe alike. Ensuring lasting peace requires not just support, but a steadfast commitment to security, sovereignty, and the principles that define a free world. Moreover, continued Western support is not just about helping Ukraine—it is about ensuring that aggression does not become a viable strategy for Russia or other authoritarian regimes in the future,” highlights Nataliia Popovych, chairperson of Ukraine House in Denmark.

The discussion underscored that European security now depends on Ukrainian victory, requiring immediate action rather than hesitation.

We thank the Danish Foreign Policy Society for co-organizing this event.