INFOLINK-CONSULTING

InfoLink Consulting, a leading global renewable energy research consulting company, has released the whitepaper "On the Road to Net Zero" titled "Powering a Green Future: A Forecast to 2030 for Solar, Wind, and Energy Storage."

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By comparing the costs of renewable and traditional energy, analyzing policy impact, and examining the supply-demand dynamics and technological advancements, InfoLink provides a clearer understanding of the pace and landscape of energy transition worldwide.

Based on an estimated annual compound growth rate of 2.5% in global electricity demand by 2050 and 26,937 TWh of electricity demand in 2019, the world needs to reduce 88.8 billion metric tonnes and 207.6 billion metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent, respectively, to achieve the goals of “limiting the temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and “pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C by 2030” under the Paris Agreement.

Currently, power generation accounts for approximately 30% of total carbon emissions. To limit global warming below 2°C and 1.5°C, the world must cumulate more than 3,400 GW and 6,800 GW of renewables capacity by 2030, respectively.

Cumulative PV capacity hit 1 TW in 2022, fueled by increasing awareness of energy transition and advances in PV technology. As the PV supply chain heads into another phase of oversupply, solar generation costs will drop notably during 2023 and 2024, driving yearly growth in cumulative renewables capacity, which is expected to reach 6 TW by 2030. Wind power, particularly offshore wind, demonstrates potential for further cost reduction, thanks to rapid technological advancement in recent years.

Energy storage costs will decline markedly as international cell manufacturers expand capacity. Cells currently account for a large portion of the total production cost of ESS, and the EV sector's substantial cell demand keeps cell prices elevated. During 2028-2029, solar-plus-storage and wind-plus-storage will reach grid parity.

In 2022, cumulative PV and wind capacities combined reached 2 TW. InfoLink estimates the world to cumulate over 9,000 GW of renewable energy by 2030. If transportation shifts to electricity, and industries gradually replace coal with electricity, electricity demand growth may increase by 4% to 5%. Therefore, it is imperative for the world to reduce the cost of renewables and strive to achieve installation targets.

Download InfoLink's whitepaper to explore the energy transition progress.

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